My Fantasy Baseball Keepers; Part Five, The Commish

His team:

This owner has a very solid team, his Trade for Altuve (mentioned earlier today) shred up his starting hitters, and added to a team with an already great outfield.  His keepers should be fairly simple, but it will be hard to value the youth on his team in terms of who he will and should keep.  

This owner is very pragmatic, and a fair commissioner.  He worked with me on the Sale for Springer trade mentioned in my analysis of my keepers (don't worry no link here, I limit my shameless self promotion to once an article).  He has a similar trade mentality to me in the sense that he tries to cater to the needs of both parties, while slightly coming out on top of the trade.

He also values players in a very economic sense, he relies heavily on past performance and extrapolates that to future performance, he then processes based on value in their respective rounds.  Round drafted is his measure for a value, not pure ranking.

Must Keeps:

Mike Trout.

I don't think Trout needs an explanation, but I will try and provide some anyway.  Trout has incraesed his HRs hit from 2013 to 2014 and to 2015.  Do I think he hits 41 HRs again? Not particularly, but I think that only benefits him.  I think he'll adjust his approach and fall back to 37 HRs, but in doing so he will decrease his strikeout percentage and vault his average to around .306.  His OBP will also inflate as I think he draws more walks this year.

Jose Altuve is obviously a keeper considering he traded the CY Young for him, but as already mentioned (see Part Four) he is the best 2B.  This gives this owner the top OF and top 2B.  A formidable combination that may just vault him into the playoffs this year.

Edwin Encarnacion is a pure power hitter that will bring a top 1B to this team.  I think that it balances out with Altuve's average and gives him a chance in each category depending on his middle of the draft.  

Nolan Arenado is a top 3B and is only going to improve.  He had an amazing year, and is playing in the hitter friendly Coors Field.  The only way he is not kept is if Arenado is traded before the draft.  The downside to Arenado is his OBP, and now that it is a category in our league may hurt this owner.  I do not think the OBP detracts from the ridiculous .287 Isolated Power that he had last year.

Fransisco Lindor is another star on the rise.  I think Lindor's hitting last year was a bit of an over performance.  In the minors he never showed the power or BABIP (batting average on balls in play) that he did in the majors, while he does have a propensity to get on base I think he might regress a bit.  But, even with a regression he is a top 5 SS, and in a keeper league you need to pay for youth.

Chris Sale is a must keep for his low ERA and high Strikeout Rate.  A starter with a k/9 above 10 is a ridiculous asset to have.

Possible Keeps:

If I were this owner I would take a risk on Carlos Gomez.  He had an immensely poor performance last year, but may see rejuvenation in Minute Maid Park.  He will be surrounded by great young hitters and will be given a chance to increase his counting statistics (Rs, RBIs) in that lineup.  I also think he has a bad taste in his mouth from last season's experience with Carlos Gomez.  He tried to move him at many points last year so I think he departs from him now, seeking out a better value pick.  

I also would keep Jason Heyward.  His youth and potential are something to buy into, and that Cubs lineup is also a great thing to be in.  That will boost his value dramatically.  

I think Carlos Gonzalez deserves consideration, but will not and should not be kept.  He is constantly injured, and quite frankly just old.  His tools are disappearing with every year.  The only reason to draft him is his power and his home field.

I think Michael Conforto is a risky pick.  He showed flashes of offensive brilliance during the postseason, and will be a cornerstone of the Mets lineup.  I also think that he faces some difficulty adjusting, but like Lindor his youth is something to pay for.

I do not think there are any other possible keepers, but that is not a bad thing.  7 keepers gives him 3 picks in the first ten rounds.

I think paying for the youth may work out well, but he may be able to grab those players later in the draft, or before they are called up.

Predictions:

Who I think he should keep:

Mike Trout

Jose Altuve

Edwin Encarnacion

Nolan Arenado

Fransisco Lindor

Chris Sale

Carlos Gomez

Jason Heyward

Michael Conforto

Who I think he will keep:

Mike Trout

Jose Altuve

Edwin Encarnacion

Nolan Arenado

Fransisco Lindor

Chris Sale

Michael Conforto

Analysis of a Kuechel for Altuve Fantasy Trade, and My Rules of Trading

The Trade:

Jose Altuve for Dallas Kuechel

Both of those players show practically even value.  I mean the Cy Young winner for the best fantasy 2B.  There should not be too much to complain about for either side.  Obviously there was not too much to complain about considering it went through.

However, I feel as though the owner getting Keuchel loses out immensely.  But before I delve into analysis let me get into my rules or trading, or at least how I feel owners should act when it comes to trading.

The Rules:

1. Other owners should not comment on a trade until after it has been either accepted or declined  To me that means no asking other's for opinions and others should not inject them into the deal.  Why?  Because every trade has an impact on the league landscape and it is impossible to remove your feelings about how a trade will affect your team from the actual analysis of the needs of the two teams involved.
2. If an owner is making a bad deal that's their choice
3. There should be no vetoing, unless there is a clear collaboration by two teams to allow one of them to win

Analysis of this Trade

I have no problem posting this analysis because the trade has already passed.  Since I think it is impossible for me to fairly analyze it without mentioning the impact on my team I will address that in a separate section.

The owner who is getting Altuve really needed him, and gets an amazing hitter.  He adds Altuve to a middle infield that includes Fransisco Lindor.  These are the only two guys he has, but based on the depth of his pitching he did not really need Kuechel, and could afford to lose him.  

Kuechel is an amazing pitcher do not get me wrong, but he does not provide the strikeouts I believe an early round pitcher should.  The owner giving him up did not feel this hurt because he had Chris Sale, Taijuan Walker, Michael Pineda, and Drew Smyly all of whom are strikeout pitchers posting K/9 above 8.  Why is this important because Kuechel sits at a K/9 below 8.  When this rate is lower than pitchers taken in the latter half of the draft it is not good company to be in.

The team receiving Kuechel has decent ERA and WHIP being generated by his keeper candidates.  Kuechel clearly bolsters his staff but does not address the needs of this owner.  While at first glance he seemingly needs a SP to join Greinke he gets a pitcher that is the poor man's Greinke.  Greinke generates a low strikeout rate (8.14 K/9) for a pitcher that is taken in the first five rounds.  Now it becomes even harder for this owner to compensate and win the strikeout category against a team with strikeout pitchers.  Although WHIP and ERA will be closer he is guaranteed a loss in strikeouts.

While gaining Altuve helps create a dynamic infield tandem of Lindor and Altuve the team losing him loses his stranglehold on the 2B position.  His tandem was Dee Gordon and Altuve, the top two at the position.  The problem is that a predraft trade limits the value he could have received.  After the draft people would have noticed that four of the top five 2B are owned by this owner and myself combined.  This would have created panic and generated a trade market where we both could have capitalized, and netting this owner even more for Altuve, the clear top choice at 2B.

Impact on My Team

I was planning to, and still will, keep Dozier and Cano, but the trade market I though Dozier would generate is now going to evaporate.  This makes me want to consider keeping Rendon, but I will probably not do so.  This trade frustrated me because I could have had a trade happen after the draft but now that seems highly unlikely.