"The catcher is in the middle of everything. He sees it best." --Johnny Bench
This is the kick off of my positional rankings. I find it most helpful to organize my rankings into tiers, this helps to guide my drafting. I can decide to take players in the highest tier, and decide when to buy into a run on a certain position or to pass depending on what tier the next player is in. Tiers help me organize my thoughts during a draft, and to keep level headed.
Speaking of keepers: Youth will be factored in. Players may see an increase in value or decrease depending on how old they are.
I list the players in order of their ranking, but the tier denotes which players they should be picked around, and are closest to in value.
Tier One- 2 Fast 2 Furious
Kyle Schwarber CHC, C, OF
Buster Posey SF, C, 1B
These two are clearly on the top level for catcher. If there is chance to grab on of them in the early rounds you get a value so much better than the next catchers off of the board. I think the ideal situation in a keeper league is to grab Schwarber. Immense power, and he's so much younger than Posey. Using OBP to measure value he is 20 points lower than Posey (projected for this year), but he provides 6 more HRs. Schwarber's value will also continue to rise over the next few years, but Posey will merely remain steady, maybe even begin to decline. Neither has to deal with the wear and tear of catching every day, meaning there will be fewer days off.
For both Posey and Scwarber an above 80 RBI tally is extremely feasible, and the above .350 OBP is also something to pay for.
The chart below serves to highlight why these two are top values. The two dots all the way to the right represent Scwarber (the higher dot), and McCann the lower dot. These show massive amounts of HR power, and if the Cubs backstop can convert a few of those long doubles to HRs he could see a season with over 30 dingers. Posey is the highest dot represented on the XBH wave. He provides a very nice amount of power too, but his XBH are all well placed doubles, not with HR potential, but some of his singles may convert depending on defensive positioning.
Tier Two- Four Horseman of the Apocalypse
Salvador Perez - KC, C
Russell Martin- TOR, C
Brian McCann- NYY, C
Jonothan Lucroy- MIL, C
Have no fear the title of this tier is nothing against these hitters. It has more to do with the sad outlook on catcher. If you are not able to pick up one of the players from the first tier (which in a keeper league where they are already rostered you probably will not) this is the tier you should aim for.
Perez's youth is the only reason he tops this tier. His OBP is the only one of top 10 Catchers that is below .300. Yikes! That makes him a scary pick up, however his youth, and his managers willingness to play him every day mean he may develop the tools to get on base not involving a hit. It also means that his counting stats such as RBI, R, and HR will be higher or equal to the players in Tier Two.
Martin and McCann are two stalwarts at this position. Both are on the older side but both can flat out hit. McCann should lead all Catchers in HRs with competition from only Schwarber. The Yankee catcher will also provide elite RBI output from his position. Martin consistently posts a .340 plus OBP while driving in runs. This total may dip a bit because he will be moved to lower in the studded Blue Jays lineup, but this lineup will also bring Martin across the plate more. His tools are something to buy into, and his propensity to see the ball while should fend off a decline in tools.
Lucroy is the bounce back candidate among this bunch. He started last season with a slew of injuries, but when he returned he fended off early struggles for a very strong July. The strong July showed positive signs heading into this year plus his 2014 stellar campaign we must buy into Lucroy. He should have an OBP around .340 and he will be plated around 70 or so times. I would not expect too much power (around 14 HRs) but you are paying for him for his consistency and his OBP. On the Chart above Lucroy is right near Posey when it comes to XBH, but he does not have the home run potential Posey possesses.
Tier Three- Seven Beauties
Travis d'Arnaud NYM, C
J.T. Realmuto MIA, C
Yasmani Grandal LAD, C
Stephen Vogt OAK, C, 1B,
Matt Wieters BAL, C
Derek Norris SD, C
Devin Mesoraco CIN, C
These 7 players are all worthy choices. The last seven worth mentioning. The rest should be picked purely along ESPN's rankings.
D'Arnaud was almost propelled into Tier 2, but he's plagued by injuries. If he stays on the field I think he easily provides Tier 2 value. His bat has never been questioned showing positive hitting tools in every level of minor league competition. He's only 27 which is only a positive in my book.
J.T. Realmuto is 24. I actually thought he was around 26, but I looked it up for the sake of accuracy. When I saw his age I pushed hm ahead of Wieters, Vogt, and Grandal. This guy puts the ball in play frequently, and has very good speed for a catcher. No other catcher will net you stolen bases consistently, but I believe Realmuto is poised for around 12 SBs. His speed will only bolster his value, and propel him to an acceptable OBP above 300. The chart above shows his projected steal numbers compared to other catchers. Only 1 is slated for more than 6 steals, and that is Realmuto.
Grandal has the potential to break out this year. Last year he started miserably and ended injured. But his middle portion of the season had him positioned atop the catcher rankings. His OPS (OBP +Slug) was above .800 meaning he got on base, and not just 1B. Grandal is also very young and has the ability to provide value for you. He could be stolen in the late rounds of the draft and has great sleeper potential.
Vogt, Wieters and Norris are all average, and all consistent. There's nothing extraordinary about them but they will all provide solid value. If you fail to take a catcher in the top two tiers, and continue to wait these guys will not upset you. The only questions are if Wieters can stay healthy? If Norris can rebound his walk rate? If Vogt has playing time lost to Josh Phegley? All are questions that probably will not be answered until the first month concludes, but even if they all work out for the worst these guys have alternatives in their own tier that may be on the waiver wire.
Devin Mesoraco was very unlucky last year. He's impossible to value, and I would only pick him in the last round of the draft, just as a flyer. Take the chance and see if it pays off. I do not think he will have much playing time, but if he does overcome his hip struggles he could provide a great showing.
