My League's Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Part Three, From the Cellar to the Top

His Team

I want to start out by saying this team is not worthy of a last place finish.  Its a good team that got very unlucky.  I would not say its built for the future, because this owner did not make many pick ups, but I could see him competing this year.  I also could see him making trades with owners as they need to push for the playoffs.  This way he can replenish his future value.  This owner thinks in a very economic way.  It is all about value added, and value over the next best at their position.  He also is very resistant to trades unless he is a clear winner.  I attempted to buy low on McCutchen, but he keeps a very level head in evaluation and realized my goal.

His Must Keeps

There are a bunch of players on this team that clearly need to be kept.  Buster Posey has so much value with his catcher eligibility, and the movement towards 1B is only helping his value.  With less wear and tear on his knees at the catcher position his already amazing hitting numbers may get better. Cutch is a first round talent that will probably fall to the second round in most drafts.  Miguel Cabrera is also a first round talent.  The fact that he is first round talent but people will be scared by his injuries is only better value for him.  

Hunter Pence was injury plagued last year but will definitely bounce back.  His high walk rate will help in the OBP statistic, and his isolated power is only going to add value as a batter.  The falling average is not of concern to me because it can easily be attributed to his shortened spring training (from the broken forearm), and the lingering wrist issues.

I think Michael Brantley is another must keep.  This gives him three outfielders in  a four outfield league.  A solid and complete Outfield will deplete the pool in the draft.  Brantley is a solid player.  I think he has evolved into a better version of Jacoby Ellsbury and is less injury prone.  He is one of the better hitters at producing average which will inflate his On Base Percentage, and his low strike out rate is even better for him.

Borderline Keepers

I will preface this by saying that all of his starting pitching is borderline, and Adrian Gonzalez is the only hitter that is a maybe keep.

With that said I believe Adrian Gonzalez is just a solid player.  With him you know exactly what value you will get, a baseline of .270/25/85.  I think this year he will hit around 280 with a dip in Home Runs.  While age goes up his power has declined so I think only 20 Home Runs this year, but he still should be kept.  Go with the player you know, then the unknown draft pool.

This owner does not value Chris Archer at all, he thinks last year was a complete outlier.  He also feels the same way about Shelby Miller.  These two pitchers would get picked in the first ten rounds, but are not necessarily worth forfeiting  picks.  

This owner will not use all ten of his picks.  He will most likely use around five.  I would not be surprised if he picked five keepers, and in the draft picked the same guys he just gave up.  If I were him I would not keep the pitchers but I would keep Adrian Gonzalez.  I think most people will not keep pitchers and he will be able to upgrade Shelby Miller and Chris Archer.

This owner has Jose Reyes, so I need to put this picture here.  Its also the only explanation needed for why Reyes will not be kept:

 

Who Should Not be Kept

Jay Bruce is an absolute no.  He had a horrendous 2014, and his average only recover to around .220.  His power is also not enough to warrant his pick.  There are better pure power hitters than Bruce.  His rest of team like Sandoval, Desmond, Kemp, and Sandoval are all solid hitters, but nothing special for fantasy baseball.  If he were building a team it would be a contender, but with no players accumulating statistics regularly they will not win you a week.  These players are also all aging horribly.  The older they get the worse they hit, and its a clear decline that has been happening over the past two years.  Not a statistical outlier with possibility of a bounce back, but full blown trends.

Teixeira is a player to consider, but he should not be kept.  He is too old, too injury prone, and Greg Bird is waiting in the wings to replace him.  Tex has also been declining and last year was seemingly an outlier.  I do not think that he is going to be very successful this year.

I think his keepers will be:

Buster Posey

Miguel Cabrera

Andrew McCutchen

Michael Brantley

I think they should be:

Buster Posey

Miguel Cabrera

Michael Brantley

Andrew McCutchen

Adrian Gonzalez

Hunter Pence