Friday, March 4, 2016

My Fantasy Baseball Keepers; Part Four, The Unpredictable owner

His Team:

This owner is a wild card.  I know the title suggests it, but he has an irrational attachment to so many players.  The people he should keep will be easy to evaluate, the people he will keep will not.  This owner loves Yankee players too much.  He picked Nathan Eovaldi in the first 15 rounds.  That is an irrational pick, but he also refused to trade him or drop him despite nobody's interest in this player.  If  I had offered him Votto for Eovaldi (which I never would) I would expect a no.

However, this player has an immense knowledge of baseball and if he applies his mind correctly he could have a team that will compete for the playoffs.  Some insight into his mind is a deal we attempted to work on.  I was attempting to get Todd Frazier and capitalize on his HR hitting prowess.  While Frazier had an amazing first half last year he shows a substantial regress in the summer months.  I wanted to trade for the value of this first half of the year and buy it cheaply.  This owner was unwavering but not for Frazier's future value, merely for the potential of his second half slump ending.

This owner is very optimistic about even the worst regressions.  He chalks them up to slumps.  His favorite catch phrase is "you may never know."

Must Keeps

The obvious is Giancarlo Stanton.  This young slugger with immense power.  He has officially reached injury prone status, but that just makes him a top 8 talent instead of top 4.  I think if he stays healthy we see a season that goes down in the history books, but I think if he gets hurt its just another 20 HR season.

Another keeper that keeps improving his hitting tools is Freddie Freeman.  I do not see him meeting any regression this season, in fact I would predict improvement.  I think he can hit around 300 this year batting around 20 and hitting 70 RBI.  His team does not make RBI and R very possible for him.

Dee Gordon and Jose Altuve will make this a very formidable 2B.  Between myself and this owner 4 of the top 5 2B are being kept.  Both players hit well, Altuve consistently, and Dee Gordon had a breakout last year that will be maintained by his speed.

Noah Syndergaard must be kept because of his age and tools.  This guy can pitch and he will only get better.  Especially because the Mets team develops pitching really well.  As evidenced by DeGrom and Harvey.

Zach Grienke is the last player that garners a must keep tag from me.  His season was ridiculous last year, and while he probably will not have  sub 2.00 era again he will stay around that mark.

The Rest of the Keeps

For me these picks are easy.  David Ortiz turned his early slump around at the end of last year and is always consistent production from the utility slot.

Starling Marte is a young and fast slugger that deserves fantasy keeper consideration every year for the next 3.

I think he should only keep 8 and play his luck in the draft with those last two picks.  There is talent better than his team out there.

Not Making the Cut

Yadier Molina is a good hitter but does not make the cut.  Last season he had a down year, and he was injured.  But, he also is a catcher and there is better value out their catcher position.

Brett Gardner is an average player but a below average fantasy player.  He is not too bad at fantasy, but not worth a keep in the first ten rounds.

Matt Carpenter is worth consideration, but he always falls in every draft we have ever done.  He clearly will be forgotten after a down year and will drop out of the first ten rounds.

David Wright is worth considering but he is also injury plagued.  A team does not need Stanton and Wright to take up their DL.  Wright probably gets kept by this owner but I would not recommend it for him.

Who Should be kept:
Starling Marte
David Ortiz
Noah Syndergaard
Zach Grienke
Jose Altuve
Dee Gordon
Freddie Freeman
Giancarlo Stanton

Who he Will Keep:
Starling Marte
Brett Gardner (he loves Gardner)
Noah Syndergaard
Zach Grienke
Jose Altuve
Dee Gordon
Freddie Freeman
Giancarlo Stanton
Melky Cabrera (he inexplicably loves Melky too, probably because he is an ex-Yankee)
David Wright

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