Anyone who tells you they expected Wil Myers to have 18 Home Runs before the all star break is lying.
Myers was an amazing prospect and was expected to be a star in the league but injuries always seemed to set him back. When he first came up with the Rays he succeeded. He hit .293 while slugging 13 Homers in 88 games. The he was hurt, and when he rejoined the Rays he sputtered his ISO was .98 and his BABIP .287 throw in his 25% K rate and he was left with a .222 average and an OBP under .300.
The clear difference is the year he returned from injury.
This year Myers has 18 Homers, 55 Runs Batted In, 11 Steals. and his average is around .280.
What has caused the rebound?
The most obvious indicator is how hard he is hitting the ball. Hard Hit percentage is often unstable but even if we use common sense we know this is a contributing factor. Myers had a wrist injury with the Rays and injuries to that area of the hand tend to sap power. Not just home run power but the amount of force you can get into a ball. Whether his 38% Hard Hit Percentage in his rookie year was a small sample size or not the 7 point drop indicates the wrist injury did some damage in that area. This year he has brought it back up to 36%. A positive sign for Myers.
Myers has also increased his contact percentage on pitches outside of the zone. This has led to a 1% decrease in his swinging strike percentage and a 4% decrease in his strikeout percentage. This means Myers is getting more balls in play and with his BABIP being over .300 in three of his four years in the majors that can only be good for him. This has led to a higher average for Myers.
Myers has also improved at pitcher friendly Petco Park. Hitters are generally boosted in value when they hit well in their home park. Myers did not dominate at home last year but this year he is able to hit in Petco. Posting a .339 average there with 12 HRs coming at home.
I think Myers has also readjusted to major league pitching. Its impossible to know what is in his head or how much preparation time he puts in so maybe that's the cause of his improvement. But as a fantasy owner either cash in on his production and trade him for another star, or sit back and enjoy the ride.
Will it continue?
I believe Myers will continue to be productive but I think he should come back down to earth a little bit. The Projections see around 12 Home Runs for Myers. Which would still be great output for a season. I think his BABIP should actually increase, but his batting average in general is a bit high and should probably come back down. I expect him to strike out a bit more considering where his K% usually is.
