Friday, April 1, 2016

My 10 Bold Predictions for 2016!

These predictions are all to be taken with a grain of salt.  I think they may come true, but I am going out on a limb with all of them.
I will organize them from least bold, to boldest.

Let's get right into them:

1) J.T. Realmuto is a top 5 Catcher this season

His stolen base totals will propel him to the top of ESPN's player rater and Miami's OF stays healthy and hits well enough to get JT solid counting statistics for the season.

2)Zack Greinke has an above 3 ERA


This prediction presupposes that he will not have a sub 2 ERA again, which I think is very likely.  But this also predicts he pitches exactly to his xFIP.  I think that his numbers suggest an inflation, but I think the pressure of being a team's #1 and a new team propel him to a mid 3 ERA.  He will still be a fantasy asset, just not as much as everyone thinks.

3) Robinson Cano is the top 2B

Cano put together an elite second half last year and his stomach ailment is now behind him.  He has to overcome the speed of Altuve and Gordon who bolster their case at the top with SBs, but I think his power and RBI production work out well for him.

4) Jose Reyes is a top 10 SS

Reyes is no longer facing criminal charges, but he is still facing a suspension.  It also appears Story has taken his spot in the lineup and there is no clear path to playing time.  This assumes a buy low by a veteran team and production from Reyes.  He was top 10 last year despite abysmal numbers in Colorado, and an injury.

5) Miguel Cabrera posts a .360 batting average

We all know Miggy can hit but the lineup around him is better than it has been in years.  JD, V-Mart, and Justin Upton will give Miggy more baseballs to put in play.  Miggy will be elite.

6) Kris Bryant hits 40 HRs

The dude has elite power but crushes baseballs harder than expected.  Those gray triangle doubles that are far out turn to home runs and he shows more comfort at the plate.

7) Carlos Correa goes 30 HR/30 SB

Correa is a unique blend of speed and power and I think he is the most likely player to join this prestigious club.  Braun and Trout have both done this but I think Correa can too, and will.

8) Chris Davis breaks the record for strikeouts by a hitter (223)

Crush had a monster year with counting stats last year, but he also racked up the strikeouts with 208.  I think he gets at least fifteen more this year.  I also think the more K's lead to more HRs.

9) The Top Player on ESPN's Player Rater is Manny Machado

Machado is a great hitter and he is surrounded by high strikeout high power hitters.  These guys will drive Machado in from first with one swing of the bat.  Machado can repeat his 30 HR 20 SB production, and will have cross the plate more times.  Machado is expected to be great, but the boldness here comes from him jumping Trout, Harper, Donaldson, and a possibly healthy Giancarlo Stanton.

10) The MLB has a 60 HR hitter

Home Runs have been trending upward recently and I think the trend continues.  Somebody will hit 60 dingers.  It may not be bold to guess this, but how about I tell you the player.

It will be:
JD Martinez

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