Tuesday, March 1, 2016

My League's Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Analysis of My Team

My League

My league has been running for about five to eight years.  It has been a revolving door surrounding the eight team, but the core seven players have been my best friends and I.  Each year we contemplate when our draft will be, and how.

Every year we toss around the idea of an auction and every year it fails by a vote of four to four, tie going to last years setting.  Last year we decided against auction... again, but we decided to make it a keeper draft.  Considering last year we had to draft, this is the first year of keepers.  This series will go on every day for the next eight days.  I will analyze each team, and who should be kept by that owner.  

Our Settings

This piece comes at what is about to be the conclusion of our rules summit.  I fought hard for keepers being valued at the round draft, so I could get Carlos Correa and only forfeit my last pick.  That effort failed so each team gets up to 10 total keepers, each player kept corresponds to one of those first rounds.  

The categories are all set in stone, except. for one  We use On Base Percentage, Runs, Runs Batted In, Home Runs, Extra Base Hits, Stolen Bases for the hitters.  We use Saves, Innings Pitched, Strikeouts, Walks and Hits over Innings Pitched, Earned Run Average, and the last category is up for debate.  This year there is a movement against quality starts, and it could be replaced by Home Runs Allowed.  

There are a few changes from last year, but not too many that impact my team.

My Team

Just some background on my team I finished Second last year.  As an owner I try to make trades when I get a clear benefit, but while also trying to benefit the other team.  For example last year I traded Chris Sale, Michael Pineda for Joey Votto and George Springer right after the draft.  This was after I decided to have no starting pitchers, clear benefit for both players,  There were two other players, one to each team where I had a slight increase in value, but Springer and Votto gave me options I needed for my hitters.


Here is my team:









So as you can see my only starters are Steven Matz, and Jared Eickoff.  Eickoff was a last ditch effort to win the championship, and Matz is all for the upside and potential keeper value.  

The Obvious Bunch

For me Carlos Correa and Josh Donaldson are obvious keepers.  I think they are great value and would both be first round picks.  These two players would each give top 8 value and at the expense of not picking in the first sixteen picks.  These are fine with me.  I think my depth at first base needs to be maintained, Votto and Chris Davis are both top ten first basemen, and 1B falls off heavily.  Both of them are necessary keepers, add in Davis' eligibility at 3B and its a no brainer.  Last year I also maintained a monopoly on Second Basemen.  Votto is round three value for keeper number four, and Chris Davis is round three value for keeper number three.

I had Cano, Dozier and Rendon.  While Rendon did not work out, and really hurt I think his upside is high.  He is not in the obvious bunch, but all three of those are on the outer edge.

With OF I have heavy depth.  JD Martinez is a great player with round three value, and this is at keeper number five.  Round Four has George Springer.  Part of this is solely his youth, and another part is because I traded Chris Sale for him.  I believe in Springer as a round Four Value with keeper number six. 

The Barely Yes Crew

Sadly I only have four spots left for keepers.  The thing is it is not too sad, I do not plan on keeping any pitchers.  I have the best closers, as you can see above, and will attempt to draft them the minute there value says I should.  If any of these guys go in the first ten rounds I would be shocked.  But I would also be grateful because they would guaranteed be in last place.  Wade Davis went in the fifth round an ESPN mock draft, but I do not see that happening here, especially if all of my keepers are hitters.  I can also focus on closers at round ten, so I am not too worried about pitchers.

My Middle Infield is what needs to be completed through these keepers.  Cano and Dozier are two of the top five 2B.  This means I kind of need to keep them.  It fills in my 2B and MI slots and rounds out my IF.  This puts me 2 OF, 1 C, 1 UTIL player from a complete hitting lineup.  I want so badly to keep Prince Fielder but he lost 1B eligibility.  Do I want to commit to him being my utility, and lose flexibility? No.  Not one bit.

Salvador Perez and Jonathan Lucroy are my catchers, and while both are good players the value at catcher is deep, and they both get mocked outside of the first ten rounds.

At this point Jacoby Ellsbury,  Prince Fielder, Wade Davis and Craig Kimbrel are the only Top 10 round talent on my roster.  Ellsbury gets injured far too much for my liking, and I may be able to get him again if I get rid of him.  Fielder I probably will say goodbye too, but whoever picks him will be deceived by his lack of 1B eligibility.  


This write out has made me rethink pitching.  Kmbrel is in a decidedly better situation in Boston and is amazing, and Wade Davis has an ideal situation.  Miller's situation is up in the air, and saves generally is.  Making it viable to save Kimbrel and Wade Davis for next year.

With that said my keepers are:
Craig Kimbrel
Wade Davis
Robinson Cano
Brian Dozier
Chris Davis
Joey Votto
George Springer
JD Martinez
Josh Donaldson
Carlos Correa


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