Overreactions, and How to take Advantage of Owners Analyzing a Small Sample Size

To Overreact:To react with unnecessary or inappropriate force, emotional display, or violence

Hopefully nobody is reacting to fantasy baseball with violence but that does not mean people react rationally to the first week of baseball. The long hiatus from baseball tends to clouds people's judgments when the fantasy baseball season returns. There are so many players that start slow, or start hot and people come up with crazy rest of season projections.

Take Trevor Story for example. After he hit a HR in his first at-bat I said to a friend that Story would hit over 500 Home Runs this year. I expected an "lol" or "lmao" but the response was a bit disturbing:

"I know, I just picked him up in my league"

The "I know" is what was concerning to me.  I knew he was joking, but he was serious.  He believed that a .277 hitter in the minors with a BABIP of .340 and K% of 24 would bat for .300 and mash 60 Home Runs this year.  That is troubling.  That is the type of reaction that smart owners capitalize on.

It is hard to analyze statistics this early on.  K% does not stabilize right away.  It does not show trends until around 60 plate appearances (Number from a Fangraphs article on Bryce Harper's K rate).  The way I analyze the statistics is to look at current numbers on plate discipline and hard hit percentage and compare them to career norms.  

Buy Low/Sell High

Clearly Trevor Story is a sell high candidate.  His value will never be higher than it is now.  He will not average one HR per game for the full season.  Yet some owners think he might, if they do trade Story to them.

These overreactions are what people should capitalize on.  People see that Ken Giles has allowed two Home Runs and are ready to cut him loose.  If he falls onto a waiver wire pick him up.  He has had a sub 2.00 ERA two years in a row, and one week of a 10 ERA does not mean he's bound for mediocrity.  Factors such as cold weather diminish the spin pitchers can throw with, it also diminishes velocity, two factors that could hurt Giles.  Who also started slowly in his years in Philly.  Giles also let up an opposite field HR to Teixiera that barely cleared the fence on a 98 mph fastball low and away.  That's a good pitch that happened to be hit well.

Most people overreact to players not performing to expectations.  How is it that one week a player can be projected as a first round pick, and a week later they are suddenly labeled a bust.  Most of them will bounce back and perform to expectations.  Whether it is today, tomorrow, next week or next month

These next few players (with the addition of Giles) are players to scoop up off of a waiver wire, or to trade for:

Kyle Seager

Seager is perenially bought low.  Never has there been a season where owners of Seager do not talk about cutting him loose for cheap.  Seager has an amazing hit tool with Cruz and Cano around him.  He is going to put up counting numbers and a decent average.  He has scored 6 times already this season and driven in four guys.  The counting stats are clearly there but some are trying to sell low because of pitcher friendly Safeco Field and a low average.  Right now his swing rates on pitches outside of the zone is lower than usual.  While it is a small sample size it does help us realize that he will return to normal.  His BABIP is .25 points lower than usual, and his OBP is actually higher than normal.  All of these statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, but if you can definitely buy low on Seager.

Steven Matz and Colin McHugh

Matz got shelled last night in Miami but that does not mean he should shed his top prospect status.  Nor should we forget about his stellar performance last year.  We can't really draw any conclusions from two innings of work, but we can try and buy low on the feat that Matz will be shelled all year long.  Another player to watch is McHugh.  McHugh got picked apart by the Yankees bats in the cold weather, but see Giles for why the cold weather may have inflated that 135 ERA.  McHugh is not an elite pitcher, but he can provide solid ratios and high strikeout rates.  McHugh will also contribute to the wins category if your league counts wins.

Mike Moustakas 

Moustakas is just unlucky this year.  He is batting .200 despite a .158 BABIP.  His K and BB rate all fall in line with his normal rates.  So bad BABIP luck is what we can attribute this slow start too.  This means his average should return to career normals.  The one thing to watch with Moustakas is if he is beating the shift this year.  Last year he gained success in the average department by spraying the ball all over the field, beating the shift against pull hitters normally used against him.  He may not reach the .280s again but his average will not return to the .212 it was years ago.

Kolten Wong 

Wong has only hit singles this year, something we can expect to change.  His ISO is currently 0 which is something that will not continue.  Wong hits in a potent Cardinals lineup that tends to outperform projections for it.  They produce great value and Wong should too.  His BABIP is in line with normal but the average is low, so what gives?  That just means his average will fall in line with usual.

Troy Tulowitzki/Albert Pujols

These two stars are aging but still solid options.  The caveat here is that their name may make it hard to truly buy low on these players but it is possible if people think injuries or age are affecting these two.  Both have solid track records of hitting well so we cannot really expect them to fall off of a cliff completely.  

Tulo has a K rate that is higher this year than ever, but again 60 ABS until that normalizes, there is also nothing in his plate discipline numbers that suggest he should be striking out more.  His outside of the zone swing percentage is lower (but those numbers are not normalized) meaning his strikeouts should go down a little bit.  Encouragingly his walk rate is up from a career low 7% last year.

Pujols has not been performing well the past few years so buying into him is not buying into the perennial all-star.  It is however buying into a .244 average with solid power (40 HRs last year).  Pujols is still a great player for fantasy purposes and he is in a solid lineup.  His BABIP is also a mere .174 meaning it should come more to league average.  That means an increase in Pujols' average.

Robinson Cano: Why The Hot Start Will Continue

Cano has two Home Runs in two games.  He has no other hits.  Good sign? Or bad?  There are two reasons Cano will continue this start, and all two of those are good signs for owners.  Signs that point to him continuing his second half from last year.

Power is Present

Cano has hit two Home Runs this year compared to 14 and 21 in the last two years respectively.  Cano is continuing his strong finish from last year by flashing power that we know Cano has.  His HR yesterday was a no doubt HR that had a true distance of 432 feet.  His HR off of Cole Hamels was labeled as just enough, but still shows true signs of power.  The true distance was 391 feet and was good enough to leave 22 ballparks.  Even more promising the speed off of the bat was 112 Miles per Hour.  Last season his top bat speed on a HR was 107 so it is encouraging to see that he did that in his second HR, and he topped it in his first.  These trends should continue, and maybe it will not result in only HRs, but it will surely help his count for doubles.  It is promising to see that he his fully healthy and crushing the ball.  Last year Cano's Line Drive rate went up 3 percentage points which is also promising for his power.

Plate Discipline

Cano has always been well disciplined that is an undisputed fact.  While this next statistic is a small sample size for this year it is a promising sign.  62% of the piches he has faced have been in the strike zone.  Cano has swung at 61% of those pitches.  Of all the pitches he has swung at in the zone he has made contact.  This means either fouling pitches off or putting them in play.  This helps push strikeout rates lower.  Speaking of strikeouts, Cano only has one this year through two games.  He is sitting at an 11% K rate which falls in line with his 12% career rate.  Meaning his increased bat speed and power is not coming because of a changed approach or more swings.

Takeaway

Cano is showing signs that his elite second half from last year will continue.  He has an increase in LD% from last year as well as an increased exit velocity (so far) this year.  These two factors combined will lead to more HRs.  The especially promising sign is that these changes have occurred with no change to his approach at the plate.

What to look for on April 4th 2016!

Yankees-Astros Postponed

Carlos Correa will need to wait to start his 2016 season.  Adjust lineups accordingly.  The teams will play tomorrow instead.

In other Astros news Gregerson is the "primary closer" for Houston to start the season.  Ken Giles may see saves and his stats are good enough that warrant holding onto him.

Players with Great Batter v. Pitcher Outlook

I look for batters with favorable statistics in at least twenty at bats against the other team's starting pitcher.  This factors in for at least the batters first two at bats, and in some cases three.  The matchups are ones to target for today.

Chris Davis - 

Against Ervin Santana Davis has 5 hits in 28 at-bats.  While the average is not that great its worth pointing out that all of those hits have gone for extra bases, and three of them have been Home Runs.  Davis is at home in the hitter friendly Camden Yards.  Davis also has three walks against Santana giving him a serviceable OBP.

I would bet on 1 HR, 1 BB, and 2 Ks today for Davis.

Bryce Harper-

.435 average, .519 OBP, 3 HRs for the reigning MVP against Teheran.  I would bet he kicks off the defense of his MVP award with a very nice game today.  

Carlos Santana-

Santana has a .400+ OBP against David Price, and 4 of his 9 hits have gone for extra bases.  Look for Santana to walk a lot today, maybe not get a hit, but I would bet on at least one walk.

Ryan Braun/Carlos Gonzalez/Billy Butler

These three are all facing aces that they hit very well.  Bumgarner, Greinke, Sale respectively.  I think all will turn in respectable games, and it may even be worth buying into Butler's .357 average against Sale.  I am a bit more skeptical of Braun who has 7 hits in 23 at-bats against Bumgarner.  The hesitance comes from Braun's 7 strikeouts and zero walks.  Braun has homers in his last three spring training games so maybe he continues the success against Mad-Bum.  Lucroy behind him might help out.  Cargo hits well against Greinke, but Cargo is on the road and he only hits .250 away from Coors field.  Cargo is 9/25 on Greinke with only 4 strikeouts.  He has 3 HRs as well.  This means he is sporting a .500 BABIP against Greinke.  I do not think this will bode well for him and think he may not be the best option today.

Best Park to Hit in Today

Phillies vs. Reds.  The wind is blowing out of the ballpark today at 17mph.  This could lift some balls out of the park today.  With Hellickson and Iglesias pitching I think we may see a lot of Home Runs out in Cincinatti.

Best Pitchers Today

Kershaw and Scherzer.  Bad lineups going against them.  Great pitchers, enough said.

Pitcher Most Likely to Get Rocked

Julio Teheran is facing a Nationals Lineup with the reigning MVP.  The wind is blowing out at 10 MPH, and the Nationals as a team bat .302 against Teheran.  The Nationals have 8 Home Runs against him and 21 XBHs.  I do not like his chances today.

My 10 Bold Predictions for 2016!

These predictions are all to be taken with a grain of salt.  I think they may come true, but I am going out on a limb with all of them.
I will organize them from least bold, to boldest.

Let's get right into them:

1) J.T. Realmuto is a top 5 Catcher this season

His stolen base totals will propel him to the top of ESPN's player rater and Miami's OF stays healthy and hits well enough to get JT solid counting statistics for the season.

2)Zack Greinke has an above 3 ERA

This prediction presupposes that he will not have a sub 2 ERA again, which I think is very likely.  But this also predicts he pitches exactly to his xFIP.  I think that his numbers suggest an inflation, but I think the pressure of being a team's #1 and a new team propel him to a mid 3 ERA.  He will still be a fantasy asset, just not as much as everyone thinks.

3) Robinson Cano is the top 2B

Cano put together an elite second half last year and his stomach ailment is now behind him.  He has to overcome the speed of Altuve and Gordon who bolster their case at the top with SBs, but I think his power and RBI production work out well for him.

4) Jose Reyes is a top 10 SS

Reyes is no longer facing criminal charges, but he is still facing a suspension.  It also appears Story has taken his spot in the lineup and there is no clear path to playing time.  This assumes a buy low by a veteran team and production from Reyes.  He was top 10 last year despite abysmal numbers in Colorado, and an injury.

5) Miguel Cabrera posts a .360 batting average

We all know Miggy can hit but the lineup around him is better than it has been in years.  JD, V-Mart, and Justin Upton will give Miggy more baseballs to put in play.  Miggy will be elite.

6) Kris Bryant hits 40 HRs

The dude has elite power but crushes baseballs harder than expected.  Those gray triangle doubles that are far out turn to home runs and he shows more comfort at the plate.

7) Carlos Correa goes 30 HR/30 SB

Correa is a unique blend of speed and power and I think he is the most likely player to join this prestigious club.  Braun and Trout have both done this but I think Correa can too, and will.

8) Chris Davis breaks the record for strikeouts by a hitter (223)

Crush had a monster year with counting stats last year, but he also racked up the strikeouts with 208.  I think he gets at least fifteen more this year.  I also think the more K's lead to more HRs.

9) The Top Player on ESPN's Player Rater is Manny Machado

Machado is a great hitter and he is surrounded by high strikeout high power hitters.  These guys will drive Machado in from first with one swing of the bat.  Machado can repeat his 30 HR 20 SB production, and will have cross the plate more times.  Machado is expected to be great, but the boldness here comes from him jumping Trout, Harper, Donaldson, and a possibly healthy Giancarlo Stanton.

10) The MLB has a 60 HR hitter

Home Runs have been trending upward recently and I think the trend continues.  Somebody will hit 60 dingers.  It may not be bold to guess this, but how about I tell you the player.

It will be:
JD Martinez

Pre-Draft Trade Analysis

Context

I have not been posting lately because my league just drafted and I have been trying to make as many moves as possible.  My tiered positional keeper rankings will continure starting on monday.  Prior to our draft there was a rapid movement of starting pitchers.  One team decided to adopt my strategy of all relief pitching so he had a fire sale on his starters.  This prompted me to get in on the action because as all players know, Buy Low and Sell High.

Mass Exodus away from Starting Pitchers

The owners of my league had an ominous feeling prior to our draft.  The feeling that Relief Pitchers would provide more value to our categories than starting pitchers.  I did not feel this way.  I felt they were very fair but one owner started a campaign against the categories (ERA, WHIP, IP, K, SV, and K/BB).  I saw two categories starters were guaranteed to win (IP, K), while relievers were only guaranteed one (SV).  The other three provide very similar averages of the players that were rostered last year.  Most owners agreed with me, but the one in opposition began to sell all of his starters.  Each owner started drafting relievers extremely early and there was a run on them in the draft.  The other owners tried to improve their teams.  

The exodus away was extreme and this owner moved elite starters for batters who probably should not have been kept at all.  Last year my pitching was composed of all relievers.  One team had four relievers.  Four teams had one or two.  Two teams had none.  Contrast that with this year.  Two teams have mostly relievers with only one starter (including mine but see the Scherzer trade below for why).  Three teams have three or four relievers.  Three teams have one or two relievers.

People are moving away from starters for the perception of lower ERA and lower WHIP while posting better strikeout ratios.  This is a not totally true perception because it relies on the numbers of a top few.  When the sample of starters is limited too the averages are the same or better.

Max Scherzer for Brian Dozier and Adrian Beltre

I got in on this action with only one trade.  I got Scherzer the number two starting pitcher for Brian Dozier and Adrian Beltre.  Beltre was not going to be a keeper for me so I had no problem giving him up.  I tried to avoid giving up Dozier, but to no avail.  My 2B/SS position needed filing, but I decided to do that through the draft.  The reason I did the trade is because Kuechel really set the market up for Scherzer's value to be high post-draft (Kuechel for Altuve Analysis).  With this I figured to get an Altuve level hitter, maybe even Altuve for  Scherzer.  I also decided that keeping him is not the worst outcome.  He would be an anchor to my average stats.  Gaining Scherzer forced me to not keep Kimbrel, but I found other relief pitcher value in the draft.  I still want, and see myself as need, to unload Scherzer.

Corey Kluber for Adrian Gonzalez and Jay Bruce

This was a steal.  Kluber is an amazing pitcher and the value returned for him is Bruce who has no business being kept (but he was), and Adrian Gonzalez who is consistent, but not a fantasy stud.  Kluber is a fantasy stud, with amazing strikeout rates and solid ERA and WHIP.

Cole Hamels for Matt Carpenter

I think this trade is very fair, both are consistent performers that usually fall in my league's drafts.  Carpenter provides solid value at 3B, and while Hamels did not ahve the best adjustment to the Rangers he is still a great pitcher and provides consistent value in strikeouts.

Jose Fernandez for Fransisco Lindor, Carloz Gonzalez, Michael Conforto

This is an exchange of youth for youth.  It is taking a flier on Conforto and betting on some development into a top outfielder, but it also provides a great SS for a team without one.  Fernandez will continue to improve but we have not seen a full season from him in a while (not his fault) but he will provide a good season.  Cargo is a good source of power and plays in a hitter friendly field so his counting stats are good, and a trade to another team (possible at the deadline) will only help him.

Matt Harvey, Yasiel Puig for David Price, Troy Tulowitzki

The team getting Tulowitzki is the same that received Lindor above.  He turned a team devoid of shorstops to one of the best middle infields in the league (he drafted Jason Kipnis).  Puig was not kept so we should analyze this trade as Harvey for Price and Tulo.  When it looks like this the trade seems less fair.  Harvey and Price are both elite SPs and this assumes that Harvey will improve while Price declines.  Even if Harvey is an improvement for Price it is not a Tulowitzki level gain.  Tulo is on a loaded roster and batting at the top of it.  His counting stats will be amazing if he remains healthy (big if) but Price for Harvey is essentially fair.

Positional Tier Keeper Rankings: First Base

"What did I do to deserve this?" - Don Mattingly on the Yankees retiring his number

                                                                                                                                                         





Before getting under way with ranking this position I want to explain the graph above.  The bottom
corresponds to the top 25 ranked 1B eligible players.  It combines their Home Runs, Runs Batted In, and Runs Scored to demonstrate value to three categories used in most leagues.

These tiers will also be in order my rankings of what I feel are the best Star Wars films.

Tier One: The Force Awakens

Paul Goldschmidt ARZ, 1B

Votto CIN, 1B

These two garner the Han and Chewie distinction because neither one of them will win you a championship (and save the galaxy) alone, but with the right crew around them they can take down all competition.  Goldie is ranked number one on ESPN and his counting statistics are second to only Chris Davis.  Goldie also posts an above .400 OBP making him a stud in fantasy baseball formats.  I would say he is more like Han Solo because he does it all hits, runs, and walks.

Votto is more like Chewbacca because he is not necessarily the prettiest option.  Now, you probably are looking at these rankings and thinking I'm crazy.  But, Votto is sixth based on ESPN's standard format, but my league is an OBP league.  Meaning we cannot ignore his .450 OBP.  The histogram below demonstrates his value compared to everyone else at his position.  Goldie is the one player in the .400s below Votto.  Votto however is clocking in at .450 while the average is .321 for 1B.  This number is worth taking in Tier One.  Votto's counting statistics are also fitting squarely within Tier Two but his OBP propels him.

Tier Two: The Empire Strikes Back

Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B

Chris Davis BAL 1B, 3B, DH

Miguel Cabrera DET 1B, DH

Edwin Encarnacion TOR 1B, DH

This tier also provides great value.  The 1B position has so much depth.  I would say that anyone in the top three tiers is a great person to have on your team, probably a cornerstone as well.  If you reach into tier four you still get a good player, but not an ideal one.

Anthony Rizzo is young and this propels him to the top of this tier.  He had a campaign last year that could even be considered a breakout.  The Cubs have done a great job of surrounding Rizzo with even more talented bats.  These bats will provide a boost in his counting statistics.  I expressed in an earlier post that I do not think Rizzo will garner the same amount of steals as last year.  Rizzo will provide great value with a decent OBP which is a solid pick in any round.  He can contribute in all categories for you, and is a guaranteed keep for the next few years.

Chris Davis reaches this tier because his counting stats are elite.  I mean he shoed that his horrendous numbers two seasons ago were more of a fluke than his amazing campaign three years ago.  His OBP is average, but the positional eligibility and the counting statistics offer flexibility to pick early, and value for that pick as well.  Something to point out about Crush Davis' OBP is that it is .100 points above his less than stellar Batting Average.  The OBP actually benefits taking him because his below average performance in a batting average league converts to a league average category.

Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion provide counting statistics with decent OBP.  If Miggy can come back from his injuries and return to 40 HR power he would come to Chris Davis' level.  The trade off in power will translate in his OBP numbers.  Miggy also has shown stellar ability to see the ball at all stages of his career.  Edwin can crush a ball and provide an OBP better than Chris Davis.  Encarnacion is hurt very frequently, but if he stays on the field for 130 games he can provide 40+ HRs.

Tier Three: Insert Name of Episode VIII Here

Jose Abreu CWS 1B

Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B

Buster Posey SF C, 1B

Freddie Freeman ATL 1B

Jose Abreu is almost a talent destined for tier two.  The problem with him is that is OBP is so low.  I understand that he's a pure power hitter (much like Chris Davis) but he does not see the ball as well.  His OBP is projected for only .06 points lower, but he also is projected for 13 fewer HRs.  The fact that he has such a low OBP, but it does not translate to 40+ homers is troubling.  He strikes out so much.  The White Sox lineup may provide some solace for him this year, whereas it has not in the past, but who knows.

Adrian Gonzalez is just reliable.  He's a good player, not great and will be a solid lynchpin for any team.

For a Buster Posey analysis see my Catcher Positional Rankings.  I will say that he should be picked around where Tier One players, IF IT IS AT CATCHER.  In no world should you pick him early and slot him in to first base on your roster.

Freddie Freeman is young and developing.  He provides solid OBP, but his counting stats will not flourish on the Braves.  They are devoid of talent.

Tier Four: Return of the Jedi

Eric Hosmer KC, 1B

Albert Pujols LAA, 1B

Brandon Belt SF, 1B
Byung Ho Park MIN, 1B

Carlos Santana CLE, 1B, DH

All of the above players should put up decent statistics.  I would not count on them to help your team, but if you get stuck with one of them they will not hurt your team.  Hosmer could develop into an even more talented hitter but he has not fully taken that step ever.  Pujols is like Adrian Gonzalez and is very reliable when healthy.  Brandon Belt emerged last year but is nothing spectcular.

Byung Ho Park is the newcomer on the scene.  If he can adjust to life in the Major Leagues he could provide a nice boost to your team at a minimal cost. The problem is that his on-base percentage will suffer when he tries to adjust to the pitching in the majors.

Carlos Santana is seemingly undeserving of this high ranking but he consistently shows a propensity to get on base.  With OBP as a category he stars and can provide above average production.

Tier Five: Revenge of the Sith

Lucas Duda NYM, 1B

Mark Teixiera NYY, 1B

Logan Forsythe TB, 1B, 2B

All of these players are ones to stay away from in shallow leagues.  In deeper ones they are okay to have but clearly nothing special.

Tier Six: A New Hope

Stephen Vogt OAK, C, 1B

Justin Bour MIA, 1B

Ryan Zimmerman WSH, 1B

I would be frightened if any one of these guys landed on my team.  No chance they are kept, and no chance they produce well.

Tier Seven: Phantom Menace

Mark Trumbo BAL OF, 1B, DH

Wil Myers SD 1B, OF

Pedro Alvarez BAL 1B, DH

Joe Mauer MIN 1B

This group is separated into two because the first three provide a low OBP, High strikeout rate, and valuable power.  Wil Myers would probably be a tier lower if not for his age and raw hitting tools.  He would be a late pick to be kept.

Joe Mauer is buoyed by his high on-base percentage.

Tier Eight: Attack of the Clones

Luis Valbuena HOU 3B, 1B
Adam Lind SEA 1B

Mitch Moreland TEX 1B

Yikes! Please do not end up with these guys on your team.  Please!