Pre-Draft Trade Analysis

Context

I have not been posting lately because my league just drafted and I have been trying to make as many moves as possible.  My tiered positional keeper rankings will continure starting on monday.  Prior to our draft there was a rapid movement of starting pitchers.  One team decided to adopt my strategy of all relief pitching so he had a fire sale on his starters.  This prompted me to get in on the action because as all players know, Buy Low and Sell High.

Mass Exodus away from Starting Pitchers

The owners of my league had an ominous feeling prior to our draft.  The feeling that Relief Pitchers would provide more value to our categories than starting pitchers.  I did not feel this way.  I felt they were very fair but one owner started a campaign against the categories (ERA, WHIP, IP, K, SV, and K/BB).  I saw two categories starters were guaranteed to win (IP, K), while relievers were only guaranteed one (SV).  The other three provide very similar averages of the players that were rostered last year.  Most owners agreed with me, but the one in opposition began to sell all of his starters.  Each owner started drafting relievers extremely early and there was a run on them in the draft.  The other owners tried to improve their teams.  

The exodus away was extreme and this owner moved elite starters for batters who probably should not have been kept at all.  Last year my pitching was composed of all relievers.  One team had four relievers.  Four teams had one or two.  Two teams had none.  Contrast that with this year.  Two teams have mostly relievers with only one starter (including mine but see the Scherzer trade below for why).  Three teams have three or four relievers.  Three teams have one or two relievers.

People are moving away from starters for the perception of lower ERA and lower WHIP while posting better strikeout ratios.  This is a not totally true perception because it relies on the numbers of a top few.  When the sample of starters is limited too the averages are the same or better.

Max Scherzer for Brian Dozier and Adrian Beltre

I got in on this action with only one trade.  I got Scherzer the number two starting pitcher for Brian Dozier and Adrian Beltre.  Beltre was not going to be a keeper for me so I had no problem giving him up.  I tried to avoid giving up Dozier, but to no avail.  My 2B/SS position needed filing, but I decided to do that through the draft.  The reason I did the trade is because Kuechel really set the market up for Scherzer's value to be high post-draft (Kuechel for Altuve Analysis).  With this I figured to get an Altuve level hitter, maybe even Altuve for  Scherzer.  I also decided that keeping him is not the worst outcome.  He would be an anchor to my average stats.  Gaining Scherzer forced me to not keep Kimbrel, but I found other relief pitcher value in the draft.  I still want, and see myself as need, to unload Scherzer.

Corey Kluber for Adrian Gonzalez and Jay Bruce

This was a steal.  Kluber is an amazing pitcher and the value returned for him is Bruce who has no business being kept (but he was), and Adrian Gonzalez who is consistent, but not a fantasy stud.  Kluber is a fantasy stud, with amazing strikeout rates and solid ERA and WHIP.

Cole Hamels for Matt Carpenter

I think this trade is very fair, both are consistent performers that usually fall in my league's drafts.  Carpenter provides solid value at 3B, and while Hamels did not ahve the best adjustment to the Rangers he is still a great pitcher and provides consistent value in strikeouts.

Jose Fernandez for Fransisco Lindor, Carloz Gonzalez, Michael Conforto

This is an exchange of youth for youth.  It is taking a flier on Conforto and betting on some development into a top outfielder, but it also provides a great SS for a team without one.  Fernandez will continue to improve but we have not seen a full season from him in a while (not his fault) but he will provide a good season.  Cargo is a good source of power and plays in a hitter friendly field so his counting stats are good, and a trade to another team (possible at the deadline) will only help him.

Matt Harvey, Yasiel Puig for David Price, Troy Tulowitzki

The team getting Tulowitzki is the same that received Lindor above.  He turned a team devoid of shorstops to one of the best middle infields in the league (he drafted Jason Kipnis).  Puig was not kept so we should analyze this trade as Harvey for Price and Tulo.  When it looks like this the trade seems less fair.  Harvey and Price are both elite SPs and this assumes that Harvey will improve while Price declines.  Even if Harvey is an improvement for Price it is not a Tulowitzki level gain.  Tulo is on a loaded roster and batting at the top of it.  His counting stats will be amazing if he remains healthy (big if) but Price for Harvey is essentially fair.