To Overreact:To react with unnecessary or inappropriate force, emotional display, or violence
Hopefully nobody is reacting to fantasy baseball with violence but that does not mean people react rationally to the first week of baseball. The long hiatus from baseball tends to clouds people's judgments when the fantasy baseball season returns. There are so many players that start slow, or start hot and people come up with crazy rest of season projections.
Take Trevor Story for example. After he hit a HR in his first at-bat I said to a friend that Story would hit over 500 Home Runs this year. I expected an "lol" or "lmao" but the response was a bit disturbing:
"I know, I just picked him up in my league"The "I know" is what was concerning to me. I knew he was joking, but he was serious. He believed that a .277 hitter in the minors with a BABIP of .340 and K% of 24 would bat for .300 and mash 60 Home Runs this year. That is troubling. That is the type of reaction that smart owners capitalize on.
It is hard to analyze statistics this early on. K% does not stabilize right away. It does not show trends until around 60 plate appearances (Number from a Fangraphs article on Bryce Harper's K rate). The way I analyze the statistics is to look at current numbers on plate discipline and hard hit percentage and compare them to career norms.
Buy Low/Sell High
Clearly Trevor Story is a sell high candidate. His value will never be higher than it is now. He will not average one HR per game for the full season. Yet some owners think he might, if they do trade Story to them.
These overreactions are what people should capitalize on. People see that Ken Giles has allowed two Home Runs and are ready to cut him loose. If he falls onto a waiver wire pick him up. He has had a sub 2.00 ERA two years in a row, and one week of a 10 ERA does not mean he's bound for mediocrity. Factors such as cold weather diminish the spin pitchers can throw with, it also diminishes velocity, two factors that could hurt Giles. Who also started slowly in his years in Philly. Giles also let up an opposite field HR to Teixiera that barely cleared the fence on a 98 mph fastball low and away. That's a good pitch that happened to be hit well.
Most people overreact to players not performing to expectations. How is it that one week a player can be projected as a first round pick, and a week later they are suddenly labeled a bust. Most of them will bounce back and perform to expectations. Whether it is today, tomorrow, next week or next month
These next few players (with the addition of Giles) are players to scoop up off of a waiver wire, or to trade for:
Kyle Seager
Seager is perenially bought low. Never has there been a season where owners of Seager do not talk about cutting him loose for cheap. Seager has an amazing hit tool with Cruz and Cano around him. He is going to put up counting numbers and a decent average. He has scored 6 times already this season and driven in four guys. The counting stats are clearly there but some are trying to sell low because of pitcher friendly Safeco Field and a low average. Right now his swing rates on pitches outside of the zone is lower than usual. While it is a small sample size it does help us realize that he will return to normal. His BABIP is .25 points lower than usual, and his OBP is actually higher than normal. All of these statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, but if you can definitely buy low on Seager.Steven Matz and Colin McHugh
Matz got shelled last night in Miami but that does not mean he should shed his top prospect status. Nor should we forget about his stellar performance last year. We can't really draw any conclusions from two innings of work, but we can try and buy low on the feat that Matz will be shelled all year long. Another player to watch is McHugh. McHugh got picked apart by the Yankees bats in the cold weather, but see Giles for why the cold weather may have inflated that 135 ERA. McHugh is not an elite pitcher, but he can provide solid ratios and high strikeout rates. McHugh will also contribute to the wins category if your league counts wins.
Mike Moustakas
Kolten Wong
Wong has only hit singles this year, something we can expect to change. His ISO is currently 0 which is something that will not continue. Wong hits in a potent Cardinals lineup that tends to outperform projections for it. They produce great value and Wong should too. His BABIP is in line with normal but the average is low, so what gives? That just means his average will fall in line with usual.
Troy Tulowitzki/Albert Pujols
These two stars are aging but still solid options. The caveat here is that their name may make it hard to truly buy low on these players but it is possible if people think injuries or age are affecting these two. Both have solid track records of hitting well so we cannot really expect them to fall off of a cliff completely.
Tulo has a K rate that is higher this year than ever, but again 60 ABS until that normalizes, there is also nothing in his plate discipline numbers that suggest he should be striking out more. His outside of the zone swing percentage is lower (but those numbers are not normalized) meaning his strikeouts should go down a little bit. Encouragingly his walk rate is up from a career low 7% last year.
Pujols has not been performing well the past few years so buying into him is not buying into the perennial all-star. It is however buying into a .244 average with solid power (40 HRs last year). Pujols is still a great player for fantasy purposes and he is in a solid lineup. His BABIP is also a mere .174 meaning it should come more to league average. That means an increase in Pujols' average.
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