Positional Tier Keeper Rankings: First Base

"What did I do to deserve this?" - Don Mattingly on the Yankees retiring his number

                                                                                                                                                         





Before getting under way with ranking this position I want to explain the graph above.  The bottom
corresponds to the top 25 ranked 1B eligible players.  It combines their Home Runs, Runs Batted In, and Runs Scored to demonstrate value to three categories used in most leagues.

These tiers will also be in order my rankings of what I feel are the best Star Wars films.

Tier One: The Force Awakens

Paul Goldschmidt ARZ, 1B

Votto CIN, 1B

These two garner the Han and Chewie distinction because neither one of them will win you a championship (and save the galaxy) alone, but with the right crew around them they can take down all competition.  Goldie is ranked number one on ESPN and his counting statistics are second to only Chris Davis.  Goldie also posts an above .400 OBP making him a stud in fantasy baseball formats.  I would say he is more like Han Solo because he does it all hits, runs, and walks.

Votto is more like Chewbacca because he is not necessarily the prettiest option.  Now, you probably are looking at these rankings and thinking I'm crazy.  But, Votto is sixth based on ESPN's standard format, but my league is an OBP league.  Meaning we cannot ignore his .450 OBP.  The histogram below demonstrates his value compared to everyone else at his position.  Goldie is the one player in the .400s below Votto.  Votto however is clocking in at .450 while the average is .321 for 1B.  This number is worth taking in Tier One.  Votto's counting statistics are also fitting squarely within Tier Two but his OBP propels him.

Tier Two: The Empire Strikes Back

Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B

Chris Davis BAL 1B, 3B, DH

Miguel Cabrera DET 1B, DH

Edwin Encarnacion TOR 1B, DH

This tier also provides great value.  The 1B position has so much depth.  I would say that anyone in the top three tiers is a great person to have on your team, probably a cornerstone as well.  If you reach into tier four you still get a good player, but not an ideal one.

Anthony Rizzo is young and this propels him to the top of this tier.  He had a campaign last year that could even be considered a breakout.  The Cubs have done a great job of surrounding Rizzo with even more talented bats.  These bats will provide a boost in his counting statistics.  I expressed in an earlier post that I do not think Rizzo will garner the same amount of steals as last year.  Rizzo will provide great value with a decent OBP which is a solid pick in any round.  He can contribute in all categories for you, and is a guaranteed keep for the next few years.

Chris Davis reaches this tier because his counting stats are elite.  I mean he shoed that his horrendous numbers two seasons ago were more of a fluke than his amazing campaign three years ago.  His OBP is average, but the positional eligibility and the counting statistics offer flexibility to pick early, and value for that pick as well.  Something to point out about Crush Davis' OBP is that it is .100 points above his less than stellar Batting Average.  The OBP actually benefits taking him because his below average performance in a batting average league converts to a league average category.

Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion provide counting statistics with decent OBP.  If Miggy can come back from his injuries and return to 40 HR power he would come to Chris Davis' level.  The trade off in power will translate in his OBP numbers.  Miggy also has shown stellar ability to see the ball at all stages of his career.  Edwin can crush a ball and provide an OBP better than Chris Davis.  Encarnacion is hurt very frequently, but if he stays on the field for 130 games he can provide 40+ HRs.

Tier Three: Insert Name of Episode VIII Here

Jose Abreu CWS 1B

Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B

Buster Posey SF C, 1B

Freddie Freeman ATL 1B

Jose Abreu is almost a talent destined for tier two.  The problem with him is that is OBP is so low.  I understand that he's a pure power hitter (much like Chris Davis) but he does not see the ball as well.  His OBP is projected for only .06 points lower, but he also is projected for 13 fewer HRs.  The fact that he has such a low OBP, but it does not translate to 40+ homers is troubling.  He strikes out so much.  The White Sox lineup may provide some solace for him this year, whereas it has not in the past, but who knows.

Adrian Gonzalez is just reliable.  He's a good player, not great and will be a solid lynchpin for any team.

For a Buster Posey analysis see my Catcher Positional Rankings.  I will say that he should be picked around where Tier One players, IF IT IS AT CATCHER.  In no world should you pick him early and slot him in to first base on your roster.

Freddie Freeman is young and developing.  He provides solid OBP, but his counting stats will not flourish on the Braves.  They are devoid of talent.

Tier Four: Return of the Jedi

Eric Hosmer KC, 1B

Albert Pujols LAA, 1B

Brandon Belt SF, 1B
Byung Ho Park MIN, 1B

Carlos Santana CLE, 1B, DH

All of the above players should put up decent statistics.  I would not count on them to help your team, but if you get stuck with one of them they will not hurt your team.  Hosmer could develop into an even more talented hitter but he has not fully taken that step ever.  Pujols is like Adrian Gonzalez and is very reliable when healthy.  Brandon Belt emerged last year but is nothing spectcular.

Byung Ho Park is the newcomer on the scene.  If he can adjust to life in the Major Leagues he could provide a nice boost to your team at a minimal cost. The problem is that his on-base percentage will suffer when he tries to adjust to the pitching in the majors.

Carlos Santana is seemingly undeserving of this high ranking but he consistently shows a propensity to get on base.  With OBP as a category he stars and can provide above average production.

Tier Five: Revenge of the Sith

Lucas Duda NYM, 1B

Mark Teixiera NYY, 1B

Logan Forsythe TB, 1B, 2B

All of these players are ones to stay away from in shallow leagues.  In deeper ones they are okay to have but clearly nothing special.

Tier Six: A New Hope

Stephen Vogt OAK, C, 1B

Justin Bour MIA, 1B

Ryan Zimmerman WSH, 1B

I would be frightened if any one of these guys landed on my team.  No chance they are kept, and no chance they produce well.

Tier Seven: Phantom Menace

Mark Trumbo BAL OF, 1B, DH

Wil Myers SD 1B, OF

Pedro Alvarez BAL 1B, DH

Joe Mauer MIN 1B

This group is separated into two because the first three provide a low OBP, High strikeout rate, and valuable power.  Wil Myers would probably be a tier lower if not for his age and raw hitting tools.  He would be a late pick to be kept.

Joe Mauer is buoyed by his high on-base percentage.

Tier Eight: Attack of the Clones

Luis Valbuena HOU 3B, 1B
Adam Lind SEA 1B

Mitch Moreland TEX 1B

Yikes! Please do not end up with these guys on your team.  Please!