Let's Talk About PEDs

Dee Gordon's suspension has a left a lot of people with a lot of questions.  There have been many questions about the impact PEDs have on a hitter's ability.  The traditional thought is that steroid use leads to an increased number of home runs.

What do Steroids do?
Steroids and performance enhancing drugs increase the amount of testosterone in the body.  Steroids increase muscle mass and strength.  One would think that if strength goes up home runs will too.  The more testosterone in the body the more ability a player has to put on muscle.  This means that whatever product Dee Gordon took probably did help him put on weight these past two seasons.  For a player like Dee Gordon putting on weight helped him get more hits.

Steroid Impact on Dee Gordon         

     With his new ability to put on weight, specifically muscle. He was able to hit the ball harder.  Hitting the ball harder garnered more hits for Gordon.  His GB%, FB% and LD% remained relatively the same throughout his career.  This means his BABIP should remain essentially the same.  But with Dee Gordon his hard hit percentage was on the rise.  When his Hard Hit percentage rises it helps him to get more balls past defenders because the faster a ball is the harder it is for a defender to react (to some locations and at some angles).  Launch angles provided by StatCast are showing that there is an ideal Home Run angle.  If a player takes steroids they add more exit velocity or they add more power behind each hit, but they do not change the launch angle.  If Dee Gordon is hitting at a launch angle either on the ground or very high the additions in Hard Hit Percentage are leading to more singles and doubles.  This would increase his BABIP and garner more hits for him.  Thus the increase in his batting average from .234 in 2013 to .333 in 2015. 

 
Steroids and Launch Angle

 Statcast technology was not around for Barry Bonds, but I would bet that his hits mostly came off the bat at this ideal HR launch angle.  Steroids helped him convert fly ball outs into Home Runs, or more long doubles into Home Runs.  Steroids add more oomph into hits but only those at an ideal launch angle will become Home Runs.  Take Chris Colabello for example.  He's an okay hitter.  He took PEDs and had almost no impact (slightly better).  He did not get a huge amount of HRs or hits after.  This is because his launch angle is not ideal, and not consistent.  It also is because he was hitting short fly balls caught by defenders.  It turned his short fly outs into long fly outs.

Using the First Two Weeks to Analyze and Better Your Team

Its that time of the season when every fantasy baseball player starts to worry that their team is not good enough to win.  Players everywhere begin to make panic moves, they begin to trade for people who have had hot starts.

I will use this piece to give a step by step guide for analyzing your own team by using my team.

Data to use:

These are the current standings, my team is in bold.  It is the Life of Carlos (with Carlos Correa as my namesake.)  

First: Do not look at the standings

You may think this is a ploy to not get you to look at the fact that I am not undefeated but it is not.  Records (especially in H2H) do not matter these first two weeks.  Any two week sample size dealing with potential wins and losses could be altered by luck.  What is important is the statistics your league uses, and where you rank among others.

Second: Know the players who started hot and who started cold

The team that is currently tied in first with mine for HRs has Trevor Story.  What that suggests is that his team will not stay at an average of 15 HRs per week.  His team also has a few players that started slowly so that is not to say he will not maintain a high number,

The team with the fewest HRs does not have any people that started slowly, that suggests he either needs HRs desperately, or he is focusing more on contact hitters.

Third: Determine where you rank in each category and determine how comfortable that makes you

ESPN allows me to sort each of these categories.  My ranks for each are as follows:

Category              Rank                 Comfort Level (1 being uncomfortable, 10 being most comfortable)

R                             2                         10

HR                          T-1                      10

XBH                       T-2                      10
RBI                         2                          10

OBP                        1                          10
SB                           T-6                       3

IP                            6                          7
K                             6                          7
SV                           2                          6
ERA                        3                          5
WHIP                      1                         10
K/BB                       1                         10

Fourth: Determine why you are at that comfort level

The Hitting Categories all of me comfortable because I drafted players that mash HRs and draw walks.  This was criteria that I had for each of them.  Players with traditionally low BA that compensate with walks and boost my OBP.  I currently have a mix of players struggling to hit but drawing walks.  This means that my other categories will receive boosts once those players begin to hit.  Conversely I have Robinson Cano who is hitting HRs but not walking as much as he usually does.  Despite being ranked 6th in both IP and K I am comfortable.  I currently have Scherzer as my only "ace" but keep young SP on my team.  The rest of my P are all relievers that post great ratios and allow me to focus on Saves.  I am also not concerned because I am only 10 strikeouts behind 4th and 5th place despite logging 40 fewer innings in these past two weeks.  

Do I think this trend continues? Probably not.  However it does mean I can win that category when I have two start weeks are unusually good outings.  My innings will also jump when Glasnow and Berrios (my bench Pitchers) are called up.

I am concerned about my stolen base numbers.  I wanted my team to hit home runs and to steal bases.  It is why some of my cornerstones are Correa and Springer.  I initially drafted Billy Hamilton, but proceeded to drop him because he cannot hit.

Fifth: Determine where other people rank

This will let you know what people will be looking to receive in trades.  The person last place in HRs likely wants HRs.  It is your job to enter trade proposals knowing what you need, and what the other person needs.

Sixth: Find cheap options to boost the categories you are deficient in

You need alternatives to trade in order to give you better leverage and to know you can walk away from a trade you are not in love with.

Seventh: When in doubt hold out

If you are unsure about any move wait one more week.  Two weeks is not hard to come back from in H2H, even in Roto you can make up ground (but you may need to move faster).  If you are not sold on a move try to hold off and see how one more week plays out.

Who's Hot? Who Will Keep It Up?

Hey everyone!

Check out my first fantasy baseball youtube video where I analyze which players can keep up their hot starts.

I talk about Aaron Nola, Trevor Story, Matt Moore, Roberto Osuna, Jean Segura, Jeremy Hazelbaker and Kole Calhoun.


https://youtu.be/gdVf73omCgg?list=PLhP9_sYF7xXYZFz5n0HwuUBraL4QmdXDw

Overreactions, and How to take Advantage of Owners Analyzing a Small Sample Size

To Overreact:To react with unnecessary or inappropriate force, emotional display, or violence

Hopefully nobody is reacting to fantasy baseball with violence but that does not mean people react rationally to the first week of baseball. The long hiatus from baseball tends to clouds people's judgments when the fantasy baseball season returns. There are so many players that start slow, or start hot and people come up with crazy rest of season projections.

Take Trevor Story for example. After he hit a HR in his first at-bat I said to a friend that Story would hit over 500 Home Runs this year. I expected an "lol" or "lmao" but the response was a bit disturbing:

"I know, I just picked him up in my league"

The "I know" is what was concerning to me.  I knew he was joking, but he was serious.  He believed that a .277 hitter in the minors with a BABIP of .340 and K% of 24 would bat for .300 and mash 60 Home Runs this year.  That is troubling.  That is the type of reaction that smart owners capitalize on.

It is hard to analyze statistics this early on.  K% does not stabilize right away.  It does not show trends until around 60 plate appearances (Number from a Fangraphs article on Bryce Harper's K rate).  The way I analyze the statistics is to look at current numbers on plate discipline and hard hit percentage and compare them to career norms.  

Buy Low/Sell High

Clearly Trevor Story is a sell high candidate.  His value will never be higher than it is now.  He will not average one HR per game for the full season.  Yet some owners think he might, if they do trade Story to them.

These overreactions are what people should capitalize on.  People see that Ken Giles has allowed two Home Runs and are ready to cut him loose.  If he falls onto a waiver wire pick him up.  He has had a sub 2.00 ERA two years in a row, and one week of a 10 ERA does not mean he's bound for mediocrity.  Factors such as cold weather diminish the spin pitchers can throw with, it also diminishes velocity, two factors that could hurt Giles.  Who also started slowly in his years in Philly.  Giles also let up an opposite field HR to Teixiera that barely cleared the fence on a 98 mph fastball low and away.  That's a good pitch that happened to be hit well.

Most people overreact to players not performing to expectations.  How is it that one week a player can be projected as a first round pick, and a week later they are suddenly labeled a bust.  Most of them will bounce back and perform to expectations.  Whether it is today, tomorrow, next week or next month

These next few players (with the addition of Giles) are players to scoop up off of a waiver wire, or to trade for:

Kyle Seager

Seager is perenially bought low.  Never has there been a season where owners of Seager do not talk about cutting him loose for cheap.  Seager has an amazing hit tool with Cruz and Cano around him.  He is going to put up counting numbers and a decent average.  He has scored 6 times already this season and driven in four guys.  The counting stats are clearly there but some are trying to sell low because of pitcher friendly Safeco Field and a low average.  Right now his swing rates on pitches outside of the zone is lower than usual.  While it is a small sample size it does help us realize that he will return to normal.  His BABIP is .25 points lower than usual, and his OBP is actually higher than normal.  All of these statistics should be taken with a grain of salt, but if you can definitely buy low on Seager.

Steven Matz and Colin McHugh

Matz got shelled last night in Miami but that does not mean he should shed his top prospect status.  Nor should we forget about his stellar performance last year.  We can't really draw any conclusions from two innings of work, but we can try and buy low on the feat that Matz will be shelled all year long.  Another player to watch is McHugh.  McHugh got picked apart by the Yankees bats in the cold weather, but see Giles for why the cold weather may have inflated that 135 ERA.  McHugh is not an elite pitcher, but he can provide solid ratios and high strikeout rates.  McHugh will also contribute to the wins category if your league counts wins.

Mike Moustakas 

Moustakas is just unlucky this year.  He is batting .200 despite a .158 BABIP.  His K and BB rate all fall in line with his normal rates.  So bad BABIP luck is what we can attribute this slow start too.  This means his average should return to career normals.  The one thing to watch with Moustakas is if he is beating the shift this year.  Last year he gained success in the average department by spraying the ball all over the field, beating the shift against pull hitters normally used against him.  He may not reach the .280s again but his average will not return to the .212 it was years ago.

Kolten Wong 

Wong has only hit singles this year, something we can expect to change.  His ISO is currently 0 which is something that will not continue.  Wong hits in a potent Cardinals lineup that tends to outperform projections for it.  They produce great value and Wong should too.  His BABIP is in line with normal but the average is low, so what gives?  That just means his average will fall in line with usual.

Troy Tulowitzki/Albert Pujols

These two stars are aging but still solid options.  The caveat here is that their name may make it hard to truly buy low on these players but it is possible if people think injuries or age are affecting these two.  Both have solid track records of hitting well so we cannot really expect them to fall off of a cliff completely.  

Tulo has a K rate that is higher this year than ever, but again 60 ABS until that normalizes, there is also nothing in his plate discipline numbers that suggest he should be striking out more.  His outside of the zone swing percentage is lower (but those numbers are not normalized) meaning his strikeouts should go down a little bit.  Encouragingly his walk rate is up from a career low 7% last year.

Pujols has not been performing well the past few years so buying into him is not buying into the perennial all-star.  It is however buying into a .244 average with solid power (40 HRs last year).  Pujols is still a great player for fantasy purposes and he is in a solid lineup.  His BABIP is also a mere .174 meaning it should come more to league average.  That means an increase in Pujols' average.

Robinson Cano: Why The Hot Start Will Continue

Cano has two Home Runs in two games.  He has no other hits.  Good sign? Or bad?  There are two reasons Cano will continue this start, and all two of those are good signs for owners.  Signs that point to him continuing his second half from last year.

Power is Present

Cano has hit two Home Runs this year compared to 14 and 21 in the last two years respectively.  Cano is continuing his strong finish from last year by flashing power that we know Cano has.  His HR yesterday was a no doubt HR that had a true distance of 432 feet.  His HR off of Cole Hamels was labeled as just enough, but still shows true signs of power.  The true distance was 391 feet and was good enough to leave 22 ballparks.  Even more promising the speed off of the bat was 112 Miles per Hour.  Last season his top bat speed on a HR was 107 so it is encouraging to see that he did that in his second HR, and he topped it in his first.  These trends should continue, and maybe it will not result in only HRs, but it will surely help his count for doubles.  It is promising to see that he his fully healthy and crushing the ball.  Last year Cano's Line Drive rate went up 3 percentage points which is also promising for his power.

Plate Discipline

Cano has always been well disciplined that is an undisputed fact.  While this next statistic is a small sample size for this year it is a promising sign.  62% of the piches he has faced have been in the strike zone.  Cano has swung at 61% of those pitches.  Of all the pitches he has swung at in the zone he has made contact.  This means either fouling pitches off or putting them in play.  This helps push strikeout rates lower.  Speaking of strikeouts, Cano only has one this year through two games.  He is sitting at an 11% K rate which falls in line with his 12% career rate.  Meaning his increased bat speed and power is not coming because of a changed approach or more swings.

Takeaway

Cano is showing signs that his elite second half from last year will continue.  He has an increase in LD% from last year as well as an increased exit velocity (so far) this year.  These two factors combined will lead to more HRs.  The especially promising sign is that these changes have occurred with no change to his approach at the plate.