Using the First Two Weeks to Analyze and Better Your Team

Its that time of the season when every fantasy baseball player starts to worry that their team is not good enough to win.  Players everywhere begin to make panic moves, they begin to trade for people who have had hot starts.

I will use this piece to give a step by step guide for analyzing your own team by using my team.

Data to use:

These are the current standings, my team is in bold.  It is the Life of Carlos (with Carlos Correa as my namesake.)  

First: Do not look at the standings

You may think this is a ploy to not get you to look at the fact that I am not undefeated but it is not.  Records (especially in H2H) do not matter these first two weeks.  Any two week sample size dealing with potential wins and losses could be altered by luck.  What is important is the statistics your league uses, and where you rank among others.

Second: Know the players who started hot and who started cold

The team that is currently tied in first with mine for HRs has Trevor Story.  What that suggests is that his team will not stay at an average of 15 HRs per week.  His team also has a few players that started slowly so that is not to say he will not maintain a high number,

The team with the fewest HRs does not have any people that started slowly, that suggests he either needs HRs desperately, or he is focusing more on contact hitters.

Third: Determine where you rank in each category and determine how comfortable that makes you

ESPN allows me to sort each of these categories.  My ranks for each are as follows:

Category              Rank                 Comfort Level (1 being uncomfortable, 10 being most comfortable)

R                             2                         10

HR                          T-1                      10

XBH                       T-2                      10
RBI                         2                          10

OBP                        1                          10
SB                           T-6                       3

IP                            6                          7
K                             6                          7
SV                           2                          6
ERA                        3                          5
WHIP                      1                         10
K/BB                       1                         10

Fourth: Determine why you are at that comfort level

The Hitting Categories all of me comfortable because I drafted players that mash HRs and draw walks.  This was criteria that I had for each of them.  Players with traditionally low BA that compensate with walks and boost my OBP.  I currently have a mix of players struggling to hit but drawing walks.  This means that my other categories will receive boosts once those players begin to hit.  Conversely I have Robinson Cano who is hitting HRs but not walking as much as he usually does.  Despite being ranked 6th in both IP and K I am comfortable.  I currently have Scherzer as my only "ace" but keep young SP on my team.  The rest of my P are all relievers that post great ratios and allow me to focus on Saves.  I am also not concerned because I am only 10 strikeouts behind 4th and 5th place despite logging 40 fewer innings in these past two weeks.  

Do I think this trend continues? Probably not.  However it does mean I can win that category when I have two start weeks are unusually good outings.  My innings will also jump when Glasnow and Berrios (my bench Pitchers) are called up.

I am concerned about my stolen base numbers.  I wanted my team to hit home runs and to steal bases.  It is why some of my cornerstones are Correa and Springer.  I initially drafted Billy Hamilton, but proceeded to drop him because he cannot hit.

Fifth: Determine where other people rank

This will let you know what people will be looking to receive in trades.  The person last place in HRs likely wants HRs.  It is your job to enter trade proposals knowing what you need, and what the other person needs.

Sixth: Find cheap options to boost the categories you are deficient in

You need alternatives to trade in order to give you better leverage and to know you can walk away from a trade you are not in love with.

Seventh: When in doubt hold out

If you are unsure about any move wait one more week.  Two weeks is not hard to come back from in H2H, even in Roto you can make up ground (but you may need to move faster).  If you are not sold on a move try to hold off and see how one more week plays out.