His Team
I figured today I would start off by showing you his team, which is a pretty great one. The problem here is that there are really tough decisions to make. One trade he made last year was: Noah Syndergaard and Jake Odorizzi for Gerrit Cole. Great trade for him because Cole is spectacular. He's a very smart player, watches a lot of baseball. Watching is very effective to helping the team. The only downside to watching so much comes with the inevitable emotional attachment to players. While he does not necessarily have a favorite team he certainly does have a lot of players that he prefers. This emotional attachment comes form just starting early on. I think the Cole trade was a clear win for him, but this owner did not necessarily think so. He valued Syndergaard highly because he thought it would be a special player. While I completely agree Syndergaard is not, and will not be at Cole's level. To me Cole is a must keep based on Average Draft Position (around 51), and adjustment for his age. Syndergaard has an ADP at 65 and his age fixes him at around the same level, but when adjusting for other players on his team Syndergaard would not have made the cut. Odorrizzi would not be on the keep list. Cole helped him win the championship, and is closer to being a keeper than Syndergaard.
Must Keeps
Bryce Harper. Literally there is no question here that he must be kept. Combine ridiculous statistics with an amazingly entertaining personality and you have the enigma that is Bryce Harper. The odds Bryce Harper bats .330 with over 40 Home Runs are not the highest, but I still believe in around .310 and 35 Home Runs. This projection has him in the top 3 no matter what.
Anthony Rizzo is the second best 1B, and is hitting in the heart of the Cubs dangerous lineup. The supporting cast around him is poised for a World Series run, but the impact on his fantasy value is a jump in Runs Batted In. I think his steals numbers decrease, those 17 came out of nowhere and with more hitters around him I do not think he gets the green light anymore. I would settle him in at around 27 HR/109 RBI/12 SB.
I think his must keeps come down to a choice in strategy. Mostly hitting, mostly pitching, or a genuine mix of both. I think based on his personality he mixes both. I legitimately have not thought about starting pitching in two years, and every year I choose to focus on either hitting or pitching. I do not see this owner making that jump (to each their own), nor do I see any other owner making that jump.
I think Madison Bumgarner, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Strasburg, Jake Arrieta, and Gerrit Cole must be kept. This would create a fearsome foursome in his pitching. I think you can make a case that David Price needs to be kept. Hell, I would make that argument. But this owner does not like Price too much. All of last year Price seemed to be trade bait. Now since this is not prediction, and what I think these owners should do I am very willing to put David Price in his keepers.
With that, 8 spots are now filled. I also think that Machado needs to be kept. He is a rising star among a week 3B crop. That makes nine. The last person that makes the cut is Corey Seager. His youth and hitting tools are phenomenal. He should be starting every day and will become a top option at a weak SS position.
AJ Pollock is currently rising through rankings because of his hitting tools, and I think he should probably be kept. It will be between him and David Price, and I believe in Pollock over Price.
Strategy Plays
I think that this owner could keep Bogearts over Price. I think that he should because it is at the weak middle infield position. The only problem is that Xander is inconsistent, and the Red Sox hitters are always expected to do so much, then they underperform. The other problem is that you cannot start three SS, and Seager just makes more sense.
I think that Addison Russell, Kyle Seager,Joc Pederson and Blake Swihart are all great keeps too, but you can't keep 'em all.
Russell has not shown enough to warrant a keep, and to forfeit tenth round value. Swihart is beginning to peak but a catcher almost never warrants value in the first ten rounds. Even if he became a top 7 catcher he would not be picked that high. Joc Pederson misses the ball too much to warrant a pick for his power. Kyle Seager is also a great pick, but with 1B filled for this owner, and a complete middle infield there is no way too keep him. Seattle's offense was bad last year minus Nelson Cruz, and Seager's clear decline in skill set make him a pick to stay away from.
These keepers are all formidable, but the fact that there are so many possibilities means that teams not keeping the full ten players will benefit from having some of these guys in the draft pool.
I personally would keep:
Bryce Harper
Anthony Rizzo
Madison Bumgarner
Gerrit Cole
Stephen Strasburg
AJ Pollock
Jake Arrieta
Troy Tulowitzki
Corey Seager
Manny Machado
I predict he will keep:
Bryce Harper
Anthony Rizzo
Madison Bumgarner
Jake Arrieta
Troy Tulowitzki
Corey Seager
Manny Machado
Gerrit Cole
Blake Swihart
AJ Pollock
I think he values youth over proven value and keeps Russell and Swihart even though I do not think he should. That Swihart pick could turn into someone else but I get an overwhelming feeling he keeps Swihart. Swihart could turn into Addison Russell quite plausibly, but I think this owner looks at catcher as a value steal, with plenty of depth in the Outfield Market. I think his bias against David Price sees Price being dropped as well.
Tune in for Part Three Tomorrow, when I analyze the last place teams prospects for keepers, and why I think McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera will help him turn it around.
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