A Hitter and A Pitcher for Today (May 23)

Happy Monday Everyone!

A day to thank myself for staying away from Dallas Kuechel.  A day to praise Joe Girardi for using NoRunDMC in order to give me a win in my H2H matchup.  And a day to try and win big.

Hitter for Today

If I needed one hitter to put in a solid game for me today I am taking Anthony Rendon.  He has not returned to his 2014 form, but he has reached base at least two times in his last five games.  While I do not have him in my keeper league I think he is a great play in Daily Fantasy Games.  I also think that he should be moved from anyone's bench to their starting lineup.  Rendon is also going against Bartolo Colon a.k.a. Bartbino a.k.a. The Ageless Wonder.  Rendon is 6 for 16 against Colon, and while this is a small sample size he has had success in the past so maybe its a sign of good things tonight.

Pitcher for Today

Its Kershaw day! But that would be too easy.  I mean the man is a monster with a great matchup.  However, I want to try and give you underrated value.  Because in DFS if most people are picking Kershaw it may make sense to move away from the common pick.  It also might be beneficial to roll with Kershaw and use this recommendation for Pitcher number 2.  I will go with Vince Velasquez on this one.  He's facing a Tigers team that strikes out in bunches and he is excellent at generating those whiffs.  I think many people will avoid him because he does not go too deep into games but I would not avoid.  He gets so many strikeouts while allowing a limited number of runs.  I think this Detroit team will help Vince top the leaderboards today.  While I do not think it will be a 20 strikeout performance I do think he could reach 10.

Fantasy Implications of A Brawl

By now we have all seen the punch heard round the league.  This shot from Odor because of a questionable slide from Bautista is going to change fantasy strategy for a week or two.

Suspensions will be handed down and you may need a replacement.

Rougned Odor will probably receive a suspension ranging from 10 to 20 games.  This means that for two to three weeks you may need a replacement.

My suggestions are to look for options on the waiver wire if you do not have a backup.

Solid options are:

Jonathan Schoop and Juricskon Profar

Schoop does not get any walks (five this year) but he does hit Home Runs.  This can compensate for some of the pop Odor gives.

Profar was a top prospect for years, and was ahead of Odor in the Rangers plan before a horrendous injury.  Profar will be on your roster until Odor returns (assuming he is called up).

Bautista will probably be suspended but for significantly less time.  If you cannot deal with the loss of his value I would suggest looking to OF for steals to try and gain points their while he is gone.

Josh Donaldson may see a suspension for his action.  In this case I would just seek a hot bat at 3B because of a lack of depth and power at the position.

Let's Talk About PEDs

Dee Gordon's suspension has a left a lot of people with a lot of questions.  There have been many questions about the impact PEDs have on a hitter's ability.  The traditional thought is that steroid use leads to an increased number of home runs.

What do Steroids do?
Steroids and performance enhancing drugs increase the amount of testosterone in the body.  Steroids increase muscle mass and strength.  One would think that if strength goes up home runs will too.  The more testosterone in the body the more ability a player has to put on muscle.  This means that whatever product Dee Gordon took probably did help him put on weight these past two seasons.  For a player like Dee Gordon putting on weight helped him get more hits.

Steroid Impact on Dee Gordon         

     With his new ability to put on weight, specifically muscle. He was able to hit the ball harder.  Hitting the ball harder garnered more hits for Gordon.  His GB%, FB% and LD% remained relatively the same throughout his career.  This means his BABIP should remain essentially the same.  But with Dee Gordon his hard hit percentage was on the rise.  When his Hard Hit percentage rises it helps him to get more balls past defenders because the faster a ball is the harder it is for a defender to react (to some locations and at some angles).  Launch angles provided by StatCast are showing that there is an ideal Home Run angle.  If a player takes steroids they add more exit velocity or they add more power behind each hit, but they do not change the launch angle.  If Dee Gordon is hitting at a launch angle either on the ground or very high the additions in Hard Hit Percentage are leading to more singles and doubles.  This would increase his BABIP and garner more hits for him.  Thus the increase in his batting average from .234 in 2013 to .333 in 2015. 

 
Steroids and Launch Angle

 Statcast technology was not around for Barry Bonds, but I would bet that his hits mostly came off the bat at this ideal HR launch angle.  Steroids helped him convert fly ball outs into Home Runs, or more long doubles into Home Runs.  Steroids add more oomph into hits but only those at an ideal launch angle will become Home Runs.  Take Chris Colabello for example.  He's an okay hitter.  He took PEDs and had almost no impact (slightly better).  He did not get a huge amount of HRs or hits after.  This is because his launch angle is not ideal, and not consistent.  It also is because he was hitting short fly balls caught by defenders.  It turned his short fly outs into long fly outs.

Using the First Two Weeks to Analyze and Better Your Team

Its that time of the season when every fantasy baseball player starts to worry that their team is not good enough to win.  Players everywhere begin to make panic moves, they begin to trade for people who have had hot starts.

I will use this piece to give a step by step guide for analyzing your own team by using my team.

Data to use:

These are the current standings, my team is in bold.  It is the Life of Carlos (with Carlos Correa as my namesake.)  

First: Do not look at the standings

You may think this is a ploy to not get you to look at the fact that I am not undefeated but it is not.  Records (especially in H2H) do not matter these first two weeks.  Any two week sample size dealing with potential wins and losses could be altered by luck.  What is important is the statistics your league uses, and where you rank among others.

Second: Know the players who started hot and who started cold

The team that is currently tied in first with mine for HRs has Trevor Story.  What that suggests is that his team will not stay at an average of 15 HRs per week.  His team also has a few players that started slowly so that is not to say he will not maintain a high number,

The team with the fewest HRs does not have any people that started slowly, that suggests he either needs HRs desperately, or he is focusing more on contact hitters.

Third: Determine where you rank in each category and determine how comfortable that makes you

ESPN allows me to sort each of these categories.  My ranks for each are as follows:

Category              Rank                 Comfort Level (1 being uncomfortable, 10 being most comfortable)

R                             2                         10

HR                          T-1                      10

XBH                       T-2                      10
RBI                         2                          10

OBP                        1                          10
SB                           T-6                       3

IP                            6                          7
K                             6                          7
SV                           2                          6
ERA                        3                          5
WHIP                      1                         10
K/BB                       1                         10

Fourth: Determine why you are at that comfort level

The Hitting Categories all of me comfortable because I drafted players that mash HRs and draw walks.  This was criteria that I had for each of them.  Players with traditionally low BA that compensate with walks and boost my OBP.  I currently have a mix of players struggling to hit but drawing walks.  This means that my other categories will receive boosts once those players begin to hit.  Conversely I have Robinson Cano who is hitting HRs but not walking as much as he usually does.  Despite being ranked 6th in both IP and K I am comfortable.  I currently have Scherzer as my only "ace" but keep young SP on my team.  The rest of my P are all relievers that post great ratios and allow me to focus on Saves.  I am also not concerned because I am only 10 strikeouts behind 4th and 5th place despite logging 40 fewer innings in these past two weeks.  

Do I think this trend continues? Probably not.  However it does mean I can win that category when I have two start weeks are unusually good outings.  My innings will also jump when Glasnow and Berrios (my bench Pitchers) are called up.

I am concerned about my stolen base numbers.  I wanted my team to hit home runs and to steal bases.  It is why some of my cornerstones are Correa and Springer.  I initially drafted Billy Hamilton, but proceeded to drop him because he cannot hit.

Fifth: Determine where other people rank

This will let you know what people will be looking to receive in trades.  The person last place in HRs likely wants HRs.  It is your job to enter trade proposals knowing what you need, and what the other person needs.

Sixth: Find cheap options to boost the categories you are deficient in

You need alternatives to trade in order to give you better leverage and to know you can walk away from a trade you are not in love with.

Seventh: When in doubt hold out

If you are unsure about any move wait one more week.  Two weeks is not hard to come back from in H2H, even in Roto you can make up ground (but you may need to move faster).  If you are not sold on a move try to hold off and see how one more week plays out.