My Favorite NBA Live Mobile Filters Part Two

  
This is now the second installment regarding my favorite filters.  Today I am going to explain my filter for Elite Trophies.

I am not going to post pictures today (for those you can view my video on youtube to be posted tomorrow), but I will go into detail.

The elite trophy market in this game is really easy to exploit.  You can effectively sell bronze trophies for 500 coins (list 100 start price, 500 buy now).  5 bronze trophies is equal to 1 silver.  5 silver is 1 gold.  5 gold for 1 elite.  This means that 25 bronze is 1 silver.  125 bronze are 1 gold.  625 bronze are 1 elite trophy.  Wow! That's a lot of elite trophies.  So essentially (just on conversion) Elite trophies should cost 312,500.

Okay obviously not because there are other ways elite trophies are flooding the market.  This number is significantly lower.  Elite trophies are settled at around 6,000 coins.  However this coin amount is the lowest I have ever gotten for an elite trophy.  The trophies are needed for Impact players and I would bet many people are hoarding elite trophies for when more sets are released.

While 6,000 is the lowest amount I have gotten, that usually nets me about 1,200 in profit.  This is because Elite trophies have buy now prices for anywhere between 4,000 coins and 5,000 coins.  Initially I bought all of these elite trophies at 5,000.  But when I realized what these actually sold for I now refuse to buy anything over 4,500 coins.

If you are feeling very patient and would like to bid then you can buy an elite trophy for anywhere between 3,000 and 3,900.  Both of these are amazing ways to make money.

Winning auctions and reselling is a tedious process but it works.  You will be very happy with this methodology when the next promotion is released.

My League's Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Part Three, From the Cellar to the Top

His Team

I want to start out by saying this team is not worthy of a last place finish.  Its a good team that got very unlucky.  I would not say its built for the future, because this owner did not make many pick ups, but I could see him competing this year.  I also could see him making trades with owners as they need to push for the playoffs.  This way he can replenish his future value.  This owner thinks in a very economic way.  It is all about value added, and value over the next best at their position.  He also is very resistant to trades unless he is a clear winner.  I attempted to buy low on McCutchen, but he keeps a very level head in evaluation and realized my goal.

His Must Keeps

There are a bunch of players on this team that clearly need to be kept.  Buster Posey has so much value with his catcher eligibility, and the movement towards 1B is only helping his value.  With less wear and tear on his knees at the catcher position his already amazing hitting numbers may get better. Cutch is a first round talent that will probably fall to the second round in most drafts.  Miguel Cabrera is also a first round talent.  The fact that he is first round talent but people will be scared by his injuries is only better value for him.  

Hunter Pence was injury plagued last year but will definitely bounce back.  His high walk rate will help in the OBP statistic, and his isolated power is only going to add value as a batter.  The falling average is not of concern to me because it can easily be attributed to his shortened spring training (from the broken forearm), and the lingering wrist issues.

I think Michael Brantley is another must keep.  This gives him three outfielders in  a four outfield league.  A solid and complete Outfield will deplete the pool in the draft.  Brantley is a solid player.  I think he has evolved into a better version of Jacoby Ellsbury and is less injury prone.  He is one of the better hitters at producing average which will inflate his On Base Percentage, and his low strike out rate is even better for him.

Borderline Keepers

I will preface this by saying that all of his starting pitching is borderline, and Adrian Gonzalez is the only hitter that is a maybe keep.

With that said I believe Adrian Gonzalez is just a solid player.  With him you know exactly what value you will get, a baseline of .270/25/85.  I think this year he will hit around 280 with a dip in Home Runs.  While age goes up his power has declined so I think only 20 Home Runs this year, but he still should be kept.  Go with the player you know, then the unknown draft pool.

This owner does not value Chris Archer at all, he thinks last year was a complete outlier.  He also feels the same way about Shelby Miller.  These two pitchers would get picked in the first ten rounds, but are not necessarily worth forfeiting  picks.  

This owner will not use all ten of his picks.  He will most likely use around five.  I would not be surprised if he picked five keepers, and in the draft picked the same guys he just gave up.  If I were him I would not keep the pitchers but I would keep Adrian Gonzalez.  I think most people will not keep pitchers and he will be able to upgrade Shelby Miller and Chris Archer.

This owner has Jose Reyes, so I need to put this picture here.  Its also the only explanation needed for why Reyes will not be kept:

 

Who Should Not be Kept

Jay Bruce is an absolute no.  He had a horrendous 2014, and his average only recover to around .220.  His power is also not enough to warrant his pick.  There are better pure power hitters than Bruce.  His rest of team like Sandoval, Desmond, Kemp, and Sandoval are all solid hitters, but nothing special for fantasy baseball.  If he were building a team it would be a contender, but with no players accumulating statistics regularly they will not win you a week.  These players are also all aging horribly.  The older they get the worse they hit, and its a clear decline that has been happening over the past two years.  Not a statistical outlier with possibility of a bounce back, but full blown trends.

Teixeira is a player to consider, but he should not be kept.  He is too old, too injury prone, and Greg Bird is waiting in the wings to replace him.  Tex has also been declining and last year was seemingly an outlier.  I do not think that he is going to be very successful this year.

I think his keepers will be:

Buster Posey

Miguel Cabrera

Andrew McCutchen

Michael Brantley

I think they should be:

Buster Posey

Miguel Cabrera

Michael Brantley

Andrew McCutchen

Adrian Gonzalez

Hunter Pence

My Favorite NBA Live Mobile Filters

This is my first post covering this game, but I want to let all of you know there will be more.  To mark the beginning of my start writing about this game, including my strategies, tips and tricks I will reveal one of the filters I use every day for the next week.  Starting tomorrow I will highlight my strategy for selling particular pieces I get.

This will be a step by step guide with pictures and text.  If you prefer video I you can find it here (https://youtu.be/RRz9iiIG-5E).

As a disclaimer I found this filter when trying to build impact John Wall (who I am still building because I got sidetracked by impact Brook Lopez and impact Anthony Davis).  This brings me to our first step.  Make it so only Wizards players are showing. 

The next step is to make it so only gold players are showing.  This is my preference.  Other people will say to snipe any gold players that are valued at under 5000, I do not, and you will see why shortly.

Initially you will see a bunch of players that cost way too much.  Gortat, Beal, Butler and Otto Porter will all show up.  Each will range from 7,500 to 20,000.  Butler being a program player will have a higher valuation.


Next make the buy now filter say 6000.  Any bid in this amount will not stand because the player will be bought very quickly.  This is the lowest Wizards players tend to go.











There was a Nene going around earlier for 5000 but he was bought before I could even hit buy now.  Considering they are all bought so quickly do not get discouraged if you see this:

The demand for Wizards players is high, which is why this filter actually works.  Honestly the only player you will probably find is Nene, however I do not recommend making him the filter.  I sniped an Otto Porter for 4,000 earlier this week, his sale value is about 10,000 so I made out with 6000 coins.

If you do net a Nene you can resell him starting at 6600 (that way after auction house taxes you net 6000).  This has you breaking even, but if you look at the Nene market you will see that your auction is competing with listing prices either higher or approximately equal to yours.  Considering John Wall gives a speed boost his impact player has people sniping Wizards players.  People like me are willing to pay for the cheapest Gold Wizards possible and Nene at 6600 will be bought.

Stay tuned for my filter tomorrow, and happy sniping to all of you.

My League's Keepers: Part Two, What the Champ Should Do

His Team

I figured today I would start off by showing you his team, which is a pretty great one.  The problem here is that there are really tough decisions to make.  One trade he made last year was: Noah Syndergaard and Jake Odorizzi for Gerrit Cole.  Great trade for him because Cole is spectacular.  He's a very smart player, watches a lot of baseball.  Watching is very effective to helping the team.  The only downside to watching so much comes with the inevitable emotional attachment to players.  While he does not necessarily have a favorite team he certainly does have a lot of players that he prefers.  This emotional attachment comes form just starting early on.  I think the Cole trade was a clear win for him, but this owner did not necessarily think so.  He valued Syndergaard highly because he thought it would be a special player.  While I completely agree Syndergaard is not, and will not be at Cole's level.  To me Cole is a must keep based on Average Draft Position (around 51), and adjustment for his age.  Syndergaard has an ADP at 65 and his age fixes him at around the same level, but when adjusting for other players on his team Syndergaard would not have made the cut.  Odorrizzi would not be on the keep list.  Cole helped him win the championship, and is closer to being a keeper than Syndergaard.

Must Keeps

Bryce Harper.  Literally there is no question here that he must be kept.  Combine ridiculous statistics with an amazingly entertaining personality and you have the enigma that is Bryce Harper.  The odds Bryce Harper bats .330 with over 40 Home Runs are not the highest, but I still believe in around .310 and 35 Home Runs.  This projection has him in the top 3 no matter what.

Anthony Rizzo is the second best 1B, and is hitting in the heart of the Cubs dangerous lineup.  The supporting cast around him is poised for a World Series run, but the impact on his fantasy value is a jump in Runs Batted In.  I think his steals numbers decrease, those 17 came out of nowhere and with more hitters around him I do not think he gets the green light anymore.  I would settle him in at around 27 HR/109 RBI/12 SB.

I think his must keeps come down to a choice in strategy.  Mostly hitting, mostly pitching, or a genuine mix of both.  I think based on his personality he mixes both.  I legitimately have not thought about starting pitching in two years, and every year I choose to focus on either hitting or pitching.  I do not see this owner making that jump (to each their own), nor do I see any other owner making that jump.

I think Madison Bumgarner, Troy Tulowitzki, Stephen Strasburg, Jake Arrieta, and Gerrit Cole must be kept.  This would create a fearsome foursome in his pitching.  I think you can make a case that David Price needs to be kept.  Hell, I would make that argument.  But this owner does not like Price too much.  All of last year Price seemed to be trade bait.  Now since this is not prediction, and what I think these owners should do I am very willing to put David Price in his keepers.

With that, 8 spots are now filled.  I also think that Machado needs to be kept.  He is a rising star among a week 3B crop.  That makes nine.  The last person that makes the cut is Corey Seager.  His youth and hitting tools are phenomenal.  He should be starting every day and will become a top option at a weak SS position.

AJ Pollock is currently rising through rankings because of his hitting tools, and I think he should probably be kept.  It will be between him and David Price, and I believe in Pollock over Price.

Strategy Plays

I think that this owner could keep Bogearts over Price.  I think that he should because it is at the weak middle infield position.  The only problem is that Xander is inconsistent, and the Red Sox hitters are always expected to do so much, then they underperform.  The other problem is that you cannot start three SS, and Seager just makes more sense.

I think that Addison Russell, Kyle Seager,Joc Pederson and Blake Swihart are all great keeps too, but you can't keep 'em all.

Russell has not shown enough to warrant a keep, and to forfeit tenth round value.  Swihart is beginning to peak but a catcher almost never warrants value in the first ten rounds.  Even if he became a top 7 catcher he would not be picked that high.  Joc Pederson misses the ball too much to warrant a pick for his power.  Kyle Seager is also a great pick, but with 1B filled for this owner, and a complete middle infield there is no way too keep him.  Seattle's offense was bad last year minus Nelson Cruz, and Seager's clear decline in skill set make him a pick to stay away from.

These keepers are all formidable, but the fact that there are so many possibilities means that teams not keeping the full ten players will benefit from having some of these guys in the draft pool.

I personally would keep:

Bryce Harper

Anthony Rizzo

Madison Bumgarner

Gerrit Cole

Stephen Strasburg

AJ Pollock

Jake Arrieta

Troy Tulowitzki

Corey Seager

Manny Machado

I predict he will keep:

Bryce Harper

Anthony Rizzo

Madison Bumgarner

Jake Arrieta

Troy Tulowitzki

Corey Seager

Manny Machado

Gerrit Cole

Blake Swihart

AJ Pollock

I think he values youth over proven value and keeps Russell and Swihart even though I do not think he should.  That Swihart pick could turn into someone else but I get an overwhelming feeling he keeps Swihart.  Swihart could turn into Addison Russell quite plausibly, but I think this owner looks at catcher as a value steal, with plenty of depth in the Outfield Market.  I think his bias against David Price sees Price being dropped as well.  

Tune in for Part Three Tomorrow, when I analyze the last place teams prospects for keepers, and why I think McCutchen and Miguel Cabrera will help him turn it around.

My League's Fantasy Baseball Keepers: Analysis of My Team

My League

My league has been running for about five to eight years.  It has been a revolving door surrounding the eight team, but the core seven players have been my best friends and I.  Each year we contemplate when our draft will be, and how.

Every year we toss around the idea of an auction and every year it fails by a vote of four to four, tie going to last years setting.  Last year we decided against auction... again, but we decided to make it a keeper draft.  Considering last year we had to draft, this is the first year of keepers.  This series will go on every day for the next eight days.  I will analyze each team, and who should be kept by that owner.  

Our Settings

This piece comes at what is about to be the conclusion of our rules summit.  I fought hard for keepers being valued at the round draft, so I could get Carlos Correa and only forfeit my last pick.  That effort failed so each team gets up to 10 total keepers, each player kept corresponds to one of those first rounds.  

The categories are all set in stone, except. for one  We use On Base Percentage, Runs, Runs Batted In, Home Runs, Extra Base Hits, Stolen Bases for the hitters.  We use Saves, Innings Pitched, Strikeouts, Walks and Hits over Innings Pitched, Earned Run Average, and the last category is up for debate.  This year there is a movement against quality starts, and it could be replaced by Home Runs Allowed.  

There are a few changes from last year, but not too many that impact my team.

My Team

Just some background on my team I finished Second last year.  As an owner I try to make trades when I get a clear benefit, but while also trying to benefit the other team.  For example last year I traded Chris Sale, Michael Pineda for Joey Votto and George Springer right after the draft.  This was after I decided to have no starting pitchers, clear benefit for both players,  There were two other players, one to each team where I had a slight increase in value, but Springer and Votto gave me options I needed for my hitters.

Here is my team:

So as you can see my only starters are Steven Matz, and Jared Eickoff.  Eickoff was a last ditch effort to win the championship, and Matz is all for the upside and potential keeper value.  

The Obvious Bunch

For me Carlos Correa and Josh Donaldson are obvious keepers.  I think they are great value and would both be first round picks.  These two players would each give top 8 value and at the expense of not picking in the first sixteen picks.  These are fine with me.  I think my depth at first base needs to be maintained, Votto and Chris Davis are both top ten first basemen, and 1B falls off heavily.  Both of them are necessary keepers, add in Davis' eligibility at 3B and its a no brainer.  Last year I also maintained a monopoly on Second Basemen.  Votto is round three value for keeper number four, and Chris Davis is round three value for keeper number three.

I had Cano, Dozier and Rendon.  While Rendon did not work out, and really hurt I think his upside is high.  He is not in the obvious bunch, but all three of those are on the outer edge.

With OF I have heavy depth.  JD Martinez is a great player with round three value, and this is at keeper number five.  Round Four has George Springer.  Part of this is solely his youth, and another part is because I traded Chris Sale for him.  I believe in Springer as a round Four Value with keeper number six. 

The Barely Yes Crew

Sadly I only have four spots left for keepers.  The thing is it is not too sad, I do not plan on keeping any pitchers.  I have the best closers, as you can see above, and will attempt to draft them the minute there value says I should.  If any of these guys go in the first ten rounds I would be shocked.  But I would also be grateful because they would guaranteed be in last place.  Wade Davis went in the fifth round an ESPN mock draft, but I do not see that happening here, especially if all of my keepers are hitters.  I can also focus on closers at round ten, so I am not too worried about pitchers.

My Middle Infield is what needs to be completed through these keepers.  Cano and Dozier are two of the top five 2B.  This means I kind of need to keep them.  It fills in my 2B and MI slots and rounds out my IF.  This puts me 2 OF, 1 C, 1 UTIL player from a complete hitting lineup.  I want so badly to keep Prince Fielder but he lost 1B eligibility.  Do I want to commit to him being my utility, and lose flexibility? No.  Not one bit.

Salvador Perez and Jonathan Lucroy are my catchers, and while both are good players the value at catcher is deep, and they both get mocked outside of the first ten rounds.

At this point Jacoby Ellsbury,  Prince Fielder, Wade Davis and Craig Kimbrel are the only Top 10 round talent on my roster.  Ellsbury gets injured far too much for my liking, and I may be able to get him again if I get rid of him.  Fielder I probably will say goodbye too, but whoever picks him will be deceived by his lack of 1B eligibility.  

This write out has made me rethink pitching.  Kmbrel is in a decidedly better situation in Boston and is amazing, and Wade Davis has an ideal situation.  Miller's situation is up in the air, and saves generally is.  Making it viable to save Kimbrel and Wade Davis for next year.

With that said my keepers are:

Craig Kimbrel

Wade Davis

Robinson Cano

Brian Dozier

Chris Davis

Joey Votto

George Springer

JD Martinez

Josh Donaldson

Carlos Correa

Impact of Alshon Jefferey's Franchise Tag on Fantasy Football WR

Alshon Jefferey 

What the Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag Does?

The Bears decided to slap the non-exclusive tag on Alshon, this means that any team other than the Bears that signs him has to give up two 1st Round Draft Picks.  This is a steep price and all but eliminates the chances a team mortgages their future for a WR1 that heavily underperformed last season.  The teams with stockpiled picks that could make a run at Alshon without hurting their future have no WR1's on their roster.  The problem? Alshon severely disappointed last year. Worse, it was in a year that Jay Cutler played pretty well (for once).  Alshon could not get the separation he needed because he was facing tougher CBs.  Brandon Marshall took that attention away from Alshon the year before last, and it showed that Alshon's hype had a lot to do with the Bears' WR tandem.

If a team paid the picks for Alshon, and had a WR1 with equal or better ability compared to Jefferey then we could see a resurgence in his value.  Alshon would easily become a top 10 WR if the quarterback at that team was viable.  This is purely speculation though.  My bet is that he stays with the Bears, and that's bad news for Alshon.

Why does being with the Chicago Bears hurt Alshon Jefferey?

We saw how Alshon played last year, and he seemed to be lacking in something.  He could come back next year and be physically more dominant, he is playing for a contract so he might outperform expectations (as most players tend to do).  Last year his 57 receptions for 807 yards was far less than the Above-1000 yards he had the years before.  The main problem is the lack of Touchdowns down 6 from 2014.  The Bears offense looked abysmal and without some top free agent splashes there is no chance Alshon gets relief.  Since Alshon is now set to take up so much cap room because of the franchise tag its clear the offense will not see a touchdown uptick.  The possible departure of Matt Forte, and transition to Jeremy Langford will only decrease efficiency, and the options available in Free Agency will not compensate for the black hole of talent that is the Bears offense.