Positional Tier Keeper Rankings: First Base

"What did I do to deserve this?" - Don Mattingly on the Yankees retiring his number

                                                                                                                                                         





Before getting under way with ranking this position I want to explain the graph above.  The bottom
corresponds to the top 25 ranked 1B eligible players.  It combines their Home Runs, Runs Batted In, and Runs Scored to demonstrate value to three categories used in most leagues.

These tiers will also be in order my rankings of what I feel are the best Star Wars films.

Tier One: The Force Awakens

Paul Goldschmidt ARZ, 1B

Votto CIN, 1B

These two garner the Han and Chewie distinction because neither one of them will win you a championship (and save the galaxy) alone, but with the right crew around them they can take down all competition.  Goldie is ranked number one on ESPN and his counting statistics are second to only Chris Davis.  Goldie also posts an above .400 OBP making him a stud in fantasy baseball formats.  I would say he is more like Han Solo because he does it all hits, runs, and walks.

Votto is more like Chewbacca because he is not necessarily the prettiest option.  Now, you probably are looking at these rankings and thinking I'm crazy.  But, Votto is sixth based on ESPN's standard format, but my league is an OBP league.  Meaning we cannot ignore his .450 OBP.  The histogram below demonstrates his value compared to everyone else at his position.  Goldie is the one player in the .400s below Votto.  Votto however is clocking in at .450 while the average is .321 for 1B.  This number is worth taking in Tier One.  Votto's counting statistics are also fitting squarely within Tier Two but his OBP propels him.

Tier Two: The Empire Strikes Back

Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B

Chris Davis BAL 1B, 3B, DH

Miguel Cabrera DET 1B, DH

Edwin Encarnacion TOR 1B, DH

This tier also provides great value.  The 1B position has so much depth.  I would say that anyone in the top three tiers is a great person to have on your team, probably a cornerstone as well.  If you reach into tier four you still get a good player, but not an ideal one.

Anthony Rizzo is young and this propels him to the top of this tier.  He had a campaign last year that could even be considered a breakout.  The Cubs have done a great job of surrounding Rizzo with even more talented bats.  These bats will provide a boost in his counting statistics.  I expressed in an earlier post that I do not think Rizzo will garner the same amount of steals as last year.  Rizzo will provide great value with a decent OBP which is a solid pick in any round.  He can contribute in all categories for you, and is a guaranteed keep for the next few years.

Chris Davis reaches this tier because his counting stats are elite.  I mean he shoed that his horrendous numbers two seasons ago were more of a fluke than his amazing campaign three years ago.  His OBP is average, but the positional eligibility and the counting statistics offer flexibility to pick early, and value for that pick as well.  Something to point out about Crush Davis' OBP is that it is .100 points above his less than stellar Batting Average.  The OBP actually benefits taking him because his below average performance in a batting average league converts to a league average category.

Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion provide counting statistics with decent OBP.  If Miggy can come back from his injuries and return to 40 HR power he would come to Chris Davis' level.  The trade off in power will translate in his OBP numbers.  Miggy also has shown stellar ability to see the ball at all stages of his career.  Edwin can crush a ball and provide an OBP better than Chris Davis.  Encarnacion is hurt very frequently, but if he stays on the field for 130 games he can provide 40+ HRs.

Tier Three: Insert Name of Episode VIII Here

Jose Abreu CWS 1B

Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B

Buster Posey SF C, 1B

Freddie Freeman ATL 1B

Jose Abreu is almost a talent destined for tier two.  The problem with him is that is OBP is so low.  I understand that he's a pure power hitter (much like Chris Davis) but he does not see the ball as well.  His OBP is projected for only .06 points lower, but he also is projected for 13 fewer HRs.  The fact that he has such a low OBP, but it does not translate to 40+ homers is troubling.  He strikes out so much.  The White Sox lineup may provide some solace for him this year, whereas it has not in the past, but who knows.

Adrian Gonzalez is just reliable.  He's a good player, not great and will be a solid lynchpin for any team.

For a Buster Posey analysis see my Catcher Positional Rankings.  I will say that he should be picked around where Tier One players, IF IT IS AT CATCHER.  In no world should you pick him early and slot him in to first base on your roster.

Freddie Freeman is young and developing.  He provides solid OBP, but his counting stats will not flourish on the Braves.  They are devoid of talent.

Tier Four: Return of the Jedi

Eric Hosmer KC, 1B

Albert Pujols LAA, 1B

Brandon Belt SF, 1B
Byung Ho Park MIN, 1B

Carlos Santana CLE, 1B, DH

All of the above players should put up decent statistics.  I would not count on them to help your team, but if you get stuck with one of them they will not hurt your team.  Hosmer could develop into an even more talented hitter but he has not fully taken that step ever.  Pujols is like Adrian Gonzalez and is very reliable when healthy.  Brandon Belt emerged last year but is nothing spectcular.

Byung Ho Park is the newcomer on the scene.  If he can adjust to life in the Major Leagues he could provide a nice boost to your team at a minimal cost. The problem is that his on-base percentage will suffer when he tries to adjust to the pitching in the majors.

Carlos Santana is seemingly undeserving of this high ranking but he consistently shows a propensity to get on base.  With OBP as a category he stars and can provide above average production.

Tier Five: Revenge of the Sith

Lucas Duda NYM, 1B

Mark Teixiera NYY, 1B

Logan Forsythe TB, 1B, 2B

All of these players are ones to stay away from in shallow leagues.  In deeper ones they are okay to have but clearly nothing special.

Tier Six: A New Hope

Stephen Vogt OAK, C, 1B

Justin Bour MIA, 1B

Ryan Zimmerman WSH, 1B

I would be frightened if any one of these guys landed on my team.  No chance they are kept, and no chance they produce well.

Tier Seven: Phantom Menace

Mark Trumbo BAL OF, 1B, DH

Wil Myers SD 1B, OF

Pedro Alvarez BAL 1B, DH

Joe Mauer MIN 1B

This group is separated into two because the first three provide a low OBP, High strikeout rate, and valuable power.  Wil Myers would probably be a tier lower if not for his age and raw hitting tools.  He would be a late pick to be kept.

Joe Mauer is buoyed by his high on-base percentage.

Tier Eight: Attack of the Clones

Luis Valbuena HOU 3B, 1B
Adam Lind SEA 1B

Mitch Moreland TEX 1B

Yikes! Please do not end up with these guys on your team.  Please!

Positional Tier Keeper Rankings: Catcher

"The catcher is in the middle of everything.  He sees it best." --Johnny Bench

This is the kick off of my positional rankings.  I find it most helpful to organize my rankings into tiers, this helps to guide my drafting.  I can decide to take players in the highest tier, and decide when to buy into a run on a certain position or to pass depending on what tier the next player is in.  Tiers help me organize my thoughts during a draft, and to keep level headed.

Speaking of keepers: Youth will be factored in.  Players may see an increase in value or decrease depending on how old they are.

I list the players in order of their ranking, but the tier denotes which players they should be picked around, and are closest to in value.

Tier One-  2 Fast 2 Furious

Kyle Schwarber CHC, C, OF

Buster Posey SF, C, 1B

These two are clearly on the top level for catcher.  If there is chance to grab on of them in the early rounds you get a value so much better than the next catchers off of the board.  I think the ideal situation in a keeper league is to grab Schwarber.  Immense power, and he's so much younger than Posey.  Using OBP to measure value he is 20 points lower than Posey (projected for this year), but he provides 6 more HRs.  Schwarber's value will also continue to rise over the next few years, but Posey will merely remain steady, maybe even begin to decline.  Neither has to deal with the wear and tear of catching every day, meaning there will be fewer days off.

For both Posey and Scwarber an above 80 RBI tally is extremely feasible, and the above .350 OBP is also something to pay for.  

The chart below serves to highlight why these two are top values.  The two dots all the way to the right represent Scwarber (the higher dot), and McCann the lower dot.  These show massive amounts of HR power, and if the Cubs backstop can convert a few of those long doubles to HRs he could see a season with over 30 dingers.  Posey is the highest dot represented on the XBH wave.  He provides a very nice amount of power too, but his XBH are all well placed doubles, not with HR potential, but some of his singles may convert depending on defensive positioning.

Tier Two- Four Horseman of the Apocalypse

Salvador Perez - KC, C

Russell Martin- TOR, C 

Brian McCann- NYY, C

Jonothan Lucroy- MIL, C

Have no fear the title of this tier is nothing against these hitters.  It has more to do with the sad outlook on catcher.  If you are not able to pick up one of the players from the first tier (which in a keeper league where they are already rostered you probably will not) this is the tier you should aim for.

Perez's youth is the only reason he tops this tier.  His OBP is the only one of top 10 Catchers that is below .300.  Yikes! That makes him a scary pick up, however his youth, and his managers willingness to play him every day mean he may develop the tools to get on base not involving a hit.  It also means that his counting stats such as RBI, R, and HR will be higher or equal to the players in Tier Two.

Martin and McCann are two stalwarts at this position.  Both are on the older side but both can flat out hit.  McCann should lead all Catchers in HRs with competition from only Schwarber.  The Yankee catcher will also provide elite RBI output from his position.  Martin consistently posts a .340 plus OBP while driving in runs.  This total may dip a bit because he will be moved to lower in the studded Blue Jays lineup, but this lineup will also bring Martin across the plate more.  His tools are something to buy into,  and his propensity to see the ball while should fend off a decline in tools.

Lucroy is the bounce back candidate among this bunch.  He started last season with a slew of injuries, but when he returned he fended off early struggles for a very strong July.  The strong July showed positive signs heading into this year plus his 2014 stellar campaign we must buy into Lucroy.  He should have an OBP around .340 and he will be plated around 70 or so times.  I would not expect too much power (around 14 HRs) but you are paying for him for his consistency and his OBP.  On the Chart above Lucroy is right near Posey when it comes to XBH, but he does not have the home run potential Posey possesses.  

Tier Three- Seven Beauties

Travis d'Arnaud NYM, C

J.T. Realmuto MIA, C

Yasmani Grandal LAD, C

Stephen Vogt OAK, C, 1B,

Matt Wieters BAL, C

Derek Norris SD, C

Devin Mesoraco CIN, C

These 7 players are all worthy choices.  The last seven worth mentioning.  The rest should be picked purely along ESPN's rankings.

D'Arnaud was almost propelled into Tier 2, but he's plagued by injuries.  If he stays on the field I think he easily provides Tier 2 value.  His bat has never been questioned showing positive hitting tools in every level of minor league competition.  He's only 27 which is only a positive in my book.  

J.T. Realmuto is 24.  I actually thought he was around 26, but I looked it up for the sake of accuracy.  When I saw his age I pushed hm ahead of Wieters, Vogt, and Grandal.  This guy puts the ball in play frequently, and has very good speed for a catcher.  No other catcher will net you stolen bases consistently, but I believe Realmuto is poised for around 12 SBs.  His speed will only bolster his value, and propel him to an acceptable OBP above 300.  The chart above shows his projected steal numbers compared to other catchers.  Only 1 is slated for more than 6 steals, and that is Realmuto.  

Grandal has the potential to break out this year.  Last year he started miserably and ended injured.  But his middle portion of the season had him positioned atop the catcher rankings.  His OPS (OBP +Slug) was above .800 meaning he got on base, and not just 1B.  Grandal is also very young and has the ability to provide value for you.  He could be stolen in the late rounds of the draft and has great sleeper potential.

Vogt, Wieters and Norris are all average, and all consistent.  There's nothing extraordinary about them but they will all provide solid value.  If you fail to take a catcher in the top two tiers, and continue to wait these guys will not upset you.  The only questions are if Wieters can stay healthy?  If Norris can rebound his walk rate? If Vogt has playing time lost to Josh Phegley?  All are questions that probably will not be answered until the first month concludes, but even if they all work out for the worst these guys have alternatives in their own tier that may be on the waiver wire.

Devin Mesoraco was very unlucky last year.  He's impossible to value, and I would only pick him in the last round of the draft, just as a flyer.  Take the chance and see if it pays off.  I do not think he will have much playing time, but if he does overcome his hip struggles he could provide a great showing.