Positional Tier Keeper Rankings: First Base

"What did I do to deserve this?" - Don Mattingly on the Yankees retiring his number

                                                                                                                                                         





Before getting under way with ranking this position I want to explain the graph above.  The bottom
corresponds to the top 25 ranked 1B eligible players.  It combines their Home Runs, Runs Batted In, and Runs Scored to demonstrate value to three categories used in most leagues.

These tiers will also be in order my rankings of what I feel are the best Star Wars films.

Tier One: The Force Awakens

Paul Goldschmidt ARZ, 1B

Votto CIN, 1B

These two garner the Han and Chewie distinction because neither one of them will win you a championship (and save the galaxy) alone, but with the right crew around them they can take down all competition.  Goldie is ranked number one on ESPN and his counting statistics are second to only Chris Davis.  Goldie also posts an above .400 OBP making him a stud in fantasy baseball formats.  I would say he is more like Han Solo because he does it all hits, runs, and walks.

Votto is more like Chewbacca because he is not necessarily the prettiest option.  Now, you probably are looking at these rankings and thinking I'm crazy.  But, Votto is sixth based on ESPN's standard format, but my league is an OBP league.  Meaning we cannot ignore his .450 OBP.  The histogram below demonstrates his value compared to everyone else at his position.  Goldie is the one player in the .400s below Votto.  Votto however is clocking in at .450 while the average is .321 for 1B.  This number is worth taking in Tier One.  Votto's counting statistics are also fitting squarely within Tier Two but his OBP propels him.

Tier Two: The Empire Strikes Back

Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B

Chris Davis BAL 1B, 3B, DH

Miguel Cabrera DET 1B, DH

Edwin Encarnacion TOR 1B, DH

This tier also provides great value.  The 1B position has so much depth.  I would say that anyone in the top three tiers is a great person to have on your team, probably a cornerstone as well.  If you reach into tier four you still get a good player, but not an ideal one.

Anthony Rizzo is young and this propels him to the top of this tier.  He had a campaign last year that could even be considered a breakout.  The Cubs have done a great job of surrounding Rizzo with even more talented bats.  These bats will provide a boost in his counting statistics.  I expressed in an earlier post that I do not think Rizzo will garner the same amount of steals as last year.  Rizzo will provide great value with a decent OBP which is a solid pick in any round.  He can contribute in all categories for you, and is a guaranteed keep for the next few years.

Chris Davis reaches this tier because his counting stats are elite.  I mean he shoed that his horrendous numbers two seasons ago were more of a fluke than his amazing campaign three years ago.  His OBP is average, but the positional eligibility and the counting statistics offer flexibility to pick early, and value for that pick as well.  Something to point out about Crush Davis' OBP is that it is .100 points above his less than stellar Batting Average.  The OBP actually benefits taking him because his below average performance in a batting average league converts to a league average category.

Miguel Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion provide counting statistics with decent OBP.  If Miggy can come back from his injuries and return to 40 HR power he would come to Chris Davis' level.  The trade off in power will translate in his OBP numbers.  Miggy also has shown stellar ability to see the ball at all stages of his career.  Edwin can crush a ball and provide an OBP better than Chris Davis.  Encarnacion is hurt very frequently, but if he stays on the field for 130 games he can provide 40+ HRs.

Tier Three: Insert Name of Episode VIII Here

Jose Abreu CWS 1B

Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B

Buster Posey SF C, 1B

Freddie Freeman ATL 1B

Jose Abreu is almost a talent destined for tier two.  The problem with him is that is OBP is so low.  I understand that he's a pure power hitter (much like Chris Davis) but he does not see the ball as well.  His OBP is projected for only .06 points lower, but he also is projected for 13 fewer HRs.  The fact that he has such a low OBP, but it does not translate to 40+ homers is troubling.  He strikes out so much.  The White Sox lineup may provide some solace for him this year, whereas it has not in the past, but who knows.

Adrian Gonzalez is just reliable.  He's a good player, not great and will be a solid lynchpin for any team.

For a Buster Posey analysis see my Catcher Positional Rankings.  I will say that he should be picked around where Tier One players, IF IT IS AT CATCHER.  In no world should you pick him early and slot him in to first base on your roster.

Freddie Freeman is young and developing.  He provides solid OBP, but his counting stats will not flourish on the Braves.  They are devoid of talent.

Tier Four: Return of the Jedi

Eric Hosmer KC, 1B

Albert Pujols LAA, 1B

Brandon Belt SF, 1B
Byung Ho Park MIN, 1B

Carlos Santana CLE, 1B, DH

All of the above players should put up decent statistics.  I would not count on them to help your team, but if you get stuck with one of them they will not hurt your team.  Hosmer could develop into an even more talented hitter but he has not fully taken that step ever.  Pujols is like Adrian Gonzalez and is very reliable when healthy.  Brandon Belt emerged last year but is nothing spectcular.

Byung Ho Park is the newcomer on the scene.  If he can adjust to life in the Major Leagues he could provide a nice boost to your team at a minimal cost. The problem is that his on-base percentage will suffer when he tries to adjust to the pitching in the majors.

Carlos Santana is seemingly undeserving of this high ranking but he consistently shows a propensity to get on base.  With OBP as a category he stars and can provide above average production.

Tier Five: Revenge of the Sith

Lucas Duda NYM, 1B

Mark Teixiera NYY, 1B

Logan Forsythe TB, 1B, 2B

All of these players are ones to stay away from in shallow leagues.  In deeper ones they are okay to have but clearly nothing special.

Tier Six: A New Hope

Stephen Vogt OAK, C, 1B

Justin Bour MIA, 1B

Ryan Zimmerman WSH, 1B

I would be frightened if any one of these guys landed on my team.  No chance they are kept, and no chance they produce well.

Tier Seven: Phantom Menace

Mark Trumbo BAL OF, 1B, DH

Wil Myers SD 1B, OF

Pedro Alvarez BAL 1B, DH

Joe Mauer MIN 1B

This group is separated into two because the first three provide a low OBP, High strikeout rate, and valuable power.  Wil Myers would probably be a tier lower if not for his age and raw hitting tools.  He would be a late pick to be kept.

Joe Mauer is buoyed by his high on-base percentage.

Tier Eight: Attack of the Clones

Luis Valbuena HOU 3B, 1B
Adam Lind SEA 1B

Mitch Moreland TEX 1B

Yikes! Please do not end up with these guys on your team.  Please!

Positional Tier Keeper Rankings: Catcher

"The catcher is in the middle of everything.  He sees it best." --Johnny Bench

This is the kick off of my positional rankings.  I find it most helpful to organize my rankings into tiers, this helps to guide my drafting.  I can decide to take players in the highest tier, and decide when to buy into a run on a certain position or to pass depending on what tier the next player is in.  Tiers help me organize my thoughts during a draft, and to keep level headed.

Speaking of keepers: Youth will be factored in.  Players may see an increase in value or decrease depending on how old they are.

I list the players in order of their ranking, but the tier denotes which players they should be picked around, and are closest to in value.

Tier One-  2 Fast 2 Furious

Kyle Schwarber CHC, C, OF

Buster Posey SF, C, 1B

These two are clearly on the top level for catcher.  If there is chance to grab on of them in the early rounds you get a value so much better than the next catchers off of the board.  I think the ideal situation in a keeper league is to grab Schwarber.  Immense power, and he's so much younger than Posey.  Using OBP to measure value he is 20 points lower than Posey (projected for this year), but he provides 6 more HRs.  Schwarber's value will also continue to rise over the next few years, but Posey will merely remain steady, maybe even begin to decline.  Neither has to deal with the wear and tear of catching every day, meaning there will be fewer days off.

For both Posey and Scwarber an above 80 RBI tally is extremely feasible, and the above .350 OBP is also something to pay for.  

The chart below serves to highlight why these two are top values.  The two dots all the way to the right represent Scwarber (the higher dot), and McCann the lower dot.  These show massive amounts of HR power, and if the Cubs backstop can convert a few of those long doubles to HRs he could see a season with over 30 dingers.  Posey is the highest dot represented on the XBH wave.  He provides a very nice amount of power too, but his XBH are all well placed doubles, not with HR potential, but some of his singles may convert depending on defensive positioning.

Tier Two- Four Horseman of the Apocalypse

Salvador Perez - KC, C

Russell Martin- TOR, C 

Brian McCann- NYY, C

Jonothan Lucroy- MIL, C

Have no fear the title of this tier is nothing against these hitters.  It has more to do with the sad outlook on catcher.  If you are not able to pick up one of the players from the first tier (which in a keeper league where they are already rostered you probably will not) this is the tier you should aim for.

Perez's youth is the only reason he tops this tier.  His OBP is the only one of top 10 Catchers that is below .300.  Yikes! That makes him a scary pick up, however his youth, and his managers willingness to play him every day mean he may develop the tools to get on base not involving a hit.  It also means that his counting stats such as RBI, R, and HR will be higher or equal to the players in Tier Two.

Martin and McCann are two stalwarts at this position.  Both are on the older side but both can flat out hit.  McCann should lead all Catchers in HRs with competition from only Schwarber.  The Yankee catcher will also provide elite RBI output from his position.  Martin consistently posts a .340 plus OBP while driving in runs.  This total may dip a bit because he will be moved to lower in the studded Blue Jays lineup, but this lineup will also bring Martin across the plate more.  His tools are something to buy into,  and his propensity to see the ball while should fend off a decline in tools.

Lucroy is the bounce back candidate among this bunch.  He started last season with a slew of injuries, but when he returned he fended off early struggles for a very strong July.  The strong July showed positive signs heading into this year plus his 2014 stellar campaign we must buy into Lucroy.  He should have an OBP around .340 and he will be plated around 70 or so times.  I would not expect too much power (around 14 HRs) but you are paying for him for his consistency and his OBP.  On the Chart above Lucroy is right near Posey when it comes to XBH, but he does not have the home run potential Posey possesses.  

Tier Three- Seven Beauties

Travis d'Arnaud NYM, C

J.T. Realmuto MIA, C

Yasmani Grandal LAD, C

Stephen Vogt OAK, C, 1B,

Matt Wieters BAL, C

Derek Norris SD, C

Devin Mesoraco CIN, C

These 7 players are all worthy choices.  The last seven worth mentioning.  The rest should be picked purely along ESPN's rankings.

D'Arnaud was almost propelled into Tier 2, but he's plagued by injuries.  If he stays on the field I think he easily provides Tier 2 value.  His bat has never been questioned showing positive hitting tools in every level of minor league competition.  He's only 27 which is only a positive in my book.  

J.T. Realmuto is 24.  I actually thought he was around 26, but I looked it up for the sake of accuracy.  When I saw his age I pushed hm ahead of Wieters, Vogt, and Grandal.  This guy puts the ball in play frequently, and has very good speed for a catcher.  No other catcher will net you stolen bases consistently, but I believe Realmuto is poised for around 12 SBs.  His speed will only bolster his value, and propel him to an acceptable OBP above 300.  The chart above shows his projected steal numbers compared to other catchers.  Only 1 is slated for more than 6 steals, and that is Realmuto.  

Grandal has the potential to break out this year.  Last year he started miserably and ended injured.  But his middle portion of the season had him positioned atop the catcher rankings.  His OPS (OBP +Slug) was above .800 meaning he got on base, and not just 1B.  Grandal is also very young and has the ability to provide value for you.  He could be stolen in the late rounds of the draft and has great sleeper potential.

Vogt, Wieters and Norris are all average, and all consistent.  There's nothing extraordinary about them but they will all provide solid value.  If you fail to take a catcher in the top two tiers, and continue to wait these guys will not upset you.  The only questions are if Wieters can stay healthy?  If Norris can rebound his walk rate? If Vogt has playing time lost to Josh Phegley?  All are questions that probably will not be answered until the first month concludes, but even if they all work out for the worst these guys have alternatives in their own tier that may be on the waiver wire.

Devin Mesoraco was very unlucky last year.  He's impossible to value, and I would only pick him in the last round of the draft, just as a flyer.  Take the chance and see if it pays off.  I do not think he will have much playing time, but if he does overcome his hip struggles he could provide a great showing.

My Fantasy Baseball Keepers; Part Five, The Commish

His team:

This owner has a very solid team, his Trade for Altuve (mentioned earlier today) shred up his starting hitters, and added to a team with an already great outfield.  His keepers should be fairly simple, but it will be hard to value the youth on his team in terms of who he will and should keep.  

This owner is very pragmatic, and a fair commissioner.  He worked with me on the Sale for Springer trade mentioned in my analysis of my keepers (don't worry no link here, I limit my shameless self promotion to once an article).  He has a similar trade mentality to me in the sense that he tries to cater to the needs of both parties, while slightly coming out on top of the trade.

He also values players in a very economic sense, he relies heavily on past performance and extrapolates that to future performance, he then processes based on value in their respective rounds.  Round drafted is his measure for a value, not pure ranking.

Must Keeps:

Mike Trout.

I don't think Trout needs an explanation, but I will try and provide some anyway.  Trout has incraesed his HRs hit from 2013 to 2014 and to 2015.  Do I think he hits 41 HRs again? Not particularly, but I think that only benefits him.  I think he'll adjust his approach and fall back to 37 HRs, but in doing so he will decrease his strikeout percentage and vault his average to around .306.  His OBP will also inflate as I think he draws more walks this year.

Jose Altuve is obviously a keeper considering he traded the CY Young for him, but as already mentioned (see Part Four) he is the best 2B.  This gives this owner the top OF and top 2B.  A formidable combination that may just vault him into the playoffs this year.

Edwin Encarnacion is a pure power hitter that will bring a top 1B to this team.  I think that it balances out with Altuve's average and gives him a chance in each category depending on his middle of the draft.  

Nolan Arenado is a top 3B and is only going to improve.  He had an amazing year, and is playing in the hitter friendly Coors Field.  The only way he is not kept is if Arenado is traded before the draft.  The downside to Arenado is his OBP, and now that it is a category in our league may hurt this owner.  I do not think the OBP detracts from the ridiculous .287 Isolated Power that he had last year.

Fransisco Lindor is another star on the rise.  I think Lindor's hitting last year was a bit of an over performance.  In the minors he never showed the power or BABIP (batting average on balls in play) that he did in the majors, while he does have a propensity to get on base I think he might regress a bit.  But, even with a regression he is a top 5 SS, and in a keeper league you need to pay for youth.

Chris Sale is a must keep for his low ERA and high Strikeout Rate.  A starter with a k/9 above 10 is a ridiculous asset to have.

Possible Keeps:

If I were this owner I would take a risk on Carlos Gomez.  He had an immensely poor performance last year, but may see rejuvenation in Minute Maid Park.  He will be surrounded by great young hitters and will be given a chance to increase his counting statistics (Rs, RBIs) in that lineup.  I also think he has a bad taste in his mouth from last season's experience with Carlos Gomez.  He tried to move him at many points last year so I think he departs from him now, seeking out a better value pick.  

I also would keep Jason Heyward.  His youth and potential are something to buy into, and that Cubs lineup is also a great thing to be in.  That will boost his value dramatically.  

I think Carlos Gonzalez deserves consideration, but will not and should not be kept.  He is constantly injured, and quite frankly just old.  His tools are disappearing with every year.  The only reason to draft him is his power and his home field.

I think Michael Conforto is a risky pick.  He showed flashes of offensive brilliance during the postseason, and will be a cornerstone of the Mets lineup.  I also think that he faces some difficulty adjusting, but like Lindor his youth is something to pay for.

I do not think there are any other possible keepers, but that is not a bad thing.  7 keepers gives him 3 picks in the first ten rounds.

I think paying for the youth may work out well, but he may be able to grab those players later in the draft, or before they are called up.

Predictions:

Who I think he should keep:

Mike Trout

Jose Altuve

Edwin Encarnacion

Nolan Arenado

Fransisco Lindor

Chris Sale

Carlos Gomez

Jason Heyward

Michael Conforto

Who I think he will keep:

Mike Trout

Jose Altuve

Edwin Encarnacion

Nolan Arenado

Fransisco Lindor

Chris Sale

Michael Conforto

Analysis of a Kuechel for Altuve Fantasy Trade, and My Rules of Trading

The Trade:

Jose Altuve for Dallas Kuechel

Both of those players show practically even value.  I mean the Cy Young winner for the best fantasy 2B.  There should not be too much to complain about for either side.  Obviously there was not too much to complain about considering it went through.

However, I feel as though the owner getting Keuchel loses out immensely.  But before I delve into analysis let me get into my rules or trading, or at least how I feel owners should act when it comes to trading.

The Rules:

1. Other owners should not comment on a trade until after it has been either accepted or declined  To me that means no asking other's for opinions and others should not inject them into the deal.  Why?  Because every trade has an impact on the league landscape and it is impossible to remove your feelings about how a trade will affect your team from the actual analysis of the needs of the two teams involved.
2. If an owner is making a bad deal that's their choice
3. There should be no vetoing, unless there is a clear collaboration by two teams to allow one of them to win

Analysis of this Trade

I have no problem posting this analysis because the trade has already passed.  Since I think it is impossible for me to fairly analyze it without mentioning the impact on my team I will address that in a separate section.

The owner who is getting Altuve really needed him, and gets an amazing hitter.  He adds Altuve to a middle infield that includes Fransisco Lindor.  These are the only two guys he has, but based on the depth of his pitching he did not really need Kuechel, and could afford to lose him.  

Kuechel is an amazing pitcher do not get me wrong, but he does not provide the strikeouts I believe an early round pitcher should.  The owner giving him up did not feel this hurt because he had Chris Sale, Taijuan Walker, Michael Pineda, and Drew Smyly all of whom are strikeout pitchers posting K/9 above 8.  Why is this important because Kuechel sits at a K/9 below 8.  When this rate is lower than pitchers taken in the latter half of the draft it is not good company to be in.

The team receiving Kuechel has decent ERA and WHIP being generated by his keeper candidates.  Kuechel clearly bolsters his staff but does not address the needs of this owner.  While at first glance he seemingly needs a SP to join Greinke he gets a pitcher that is the poor man's Greinke.  Greinke generates a low strikeout rate (8.14 K/9) for a pitcher that is taken in the first five rounds.  Now it becomes even harder for this owner to compensate and win the strikeout category against a team with strikeout pitchers.  Although WHIP and ERA will be closer he is guaranteed a loss in strikeouts.

While gaining Altuve helps create a dynamic infield tandem of Lindor and Altuve the team losing him loses his stranglehold on the 2B position.  His tandem was Dee Gordon and Altuve, the top two at the position.  The problem is that a predraft trade limits the value he could have received.  After the draft people would have noticed that four of the top five 2B are owned by this owner and myself combined.  This would have created panic and generated a trade market where we both could have capitalized, and netting this owner even more for Altuve, the clear top choice at 2B.

Impact on My Team

I was planning to, and still will, keep Dozier and Cano, but the trade market I though Dozier would generate is now going to evaporate.  This makes me want to consider keeping Rendon, but I will probably not do so.  This trade frustrated me because I could have had a trade happen after the draft but now that seems highly unlikely.