Wil Myers Is Back

Anyone who tells you they expected Wil Myers to have 18 Home Runs before the all star break is lying.  

Myers was an amazing prospect and was expected to be a star in the league but injuries always seemed to set him back.  When he first came up with the Rays he succeeded.  He hit .293 while slugging 13 Homers in 88 games.  The he was hurt, and when he rejoined the Rays he sputtered his ISO was .98 and his BABIP .287 throw in his 25% K rate and he was left with a .222 average and an OBP under .300.

Myers Career Chart

The clear difference is the year he returned from injury.

This year Myers has 18 Homers, 55 Runs Batted In, 11 Steals. and his average is around .280.

What has caused the rebound?

The most obvious indicator is how hard he is hitting the ball.  Hard Hit percentage is often unstable but even if we use common sense we know this is a contributing factor.  Myers had a wrist injury with the Rays and injuries to that area of the hand tend to sap power.  Not just home run power but the amount of force you can get into a ball.  Whether his 38% Hard Hit Percentage in his rookie year was a small sample size or not the 7 point drop indicates the wrist injury did some damage in that area.  This year he has brought it back up to 36%.  A positive sign for Myers.

Myers has also increased his contact percentage on pitches outside of the zone.  This has led to a 1% decrease in his swinging strike percentage and a 4% decrease in his strikeout percentage.  This means Myers is getting more balls in play and with his BABIP being over .300 in three of his four years in the majors that can only be good for him.  This has led to a higher average for Myers. 

Myers has also improved at pitcher friendly Petco Park.  Hitters are generally boosted in value when they hit well in their home park. Myers did not dominate at home last year but this year he is able to hit in Petco.  Posting a .339 average there with 12 HRs coming at home.

I think Myers has also readjusted to major league pitching.  Its impossible to know what is in his head or how much preparation time he puts in so maybe that's the cause of his improvement.  But as a fantasy owner either cash in on his production and trade him for another star, or sit back and enjoy the ride.

Will it continue?

I believe Myers will continue to be productive but I think he should come back down to earth a little bit.  The Projections see around 12 Home Runs for Myers. Which would still be great output for a season.  I think his BABIP should actually increase, but his batting average in general is a bit high and should probably come back down.  I expect him to strike out a bit more considering where his K% usually is.

A Hitter and A Pitcher for Today (May 23)

Happy Monday Everyone!

A day to thank myself for staying away from Dallas Kuechel.  A day to praise Joe Girardi for using NoRunDMC in order to give me a win in my H2H matchup.  And a day to try and win big.

Hitter for Today

If I needed one hitter to put in a solid game for me today I am taking Anthony Rendon.  He has not returned to his 2014 form, but he has reached base at least two times in his last five games.  While I do not have him in my keeper league I think he is a great play in Daily Fantasy Games.  I also think that he should be moved from anyone's bench to their starting lineup.  Rendon is also going against Bartolo Colon a.k.a. Bartbino a.k.a. The Ageless Wonder.  Rendon is 6 for 16 against Colon, and while this is a small sample size he has had success in the past so maybe its a sign of good things tonight.

Pitcher for Today

Its Kershaw day! But that would be too easy.  I mean the man is a monster with a great matchup.  However, I want to try and give you underrated value.  Because in DFS if most people are picking Kershaw it may make sense to move away from the common pick.  It also might be beneficial to roll with Kershaw and use this recommendation for Pitcher number 2.  I will go with Vince Velasquez on this one.  He's facing a Tigers team that strikes out in bunches and he is excellent at generating those whiffs.  I think many people will avoid him because he does not go too deep into games but I would not avoid.  He gets so many strikeouts while allowing a limited number of runs.  I think this Detroit team will help Vince top the leaderboards today.  While I do not think it will be a 20 strikeout performance I do think he could reach 10.

Fantasy Implications of A Brawl

By now we have all seen the punch heard round the league.  This shot from Odor because of a questionable slide from Bautista is going to change fantasy strategy for a week or two.

Suspensions will be handed down and you may need a replacement.

Rougned Odor will probably receive a suspension ranging from 10 to 20 games.  This means that for two to three weeks you may need a replacement.

My suggestions are to look for options on the waiver wire if you do not have a backup.

Solid options are:

Jonathan Schoop and Juricskon Profar

Schoop does not get any walks (five this year) but he does hit Home Runs.  This can compensate for some of the pop Odor gives.

Profar was a top prospect for years, and was ahead of Odor in the Rangers plan before a horrendous injury.  Profar will be on your roster until Odor returns (assuming he is called up).

Bautista will probably be suspended but for significantly less time.  If you cannot deal with the loss of his value I would suggest looking to OF for steals to try and gain points their while he is gone.

Josh Donaldson may see a suspension for his action.  In this case I would just seek a hot bat at 3B because of a lack of depth and power at the position.

Let's Talk About PEDs

Dee Gordon's suspension has a left a lot of people with a lot of questions.  There have been many questions about the impact PEDs have on a hitter's ability.  The traditional thought is that steroid use leads to an increased number of home runs.

What do Steroids do?
Steroids and performance enhancing drugs increase the amount of testosterone in the body.  Steroids increase muscle mass and strength.  One would think that if strength goes up home runs will too.  The more testosterone in the body the more ability a player has to put on muscle.  This means that whatever product Dee Gordon took probably did help him put on weight these past two seasons.  For a player like Dee Gordon putting on weight helped him get more hits.

Steroid Impact on Dee Gordon         

     With his new ability to put on weight, specifically muscle. He was able to hit the ball harder.  Hitting the ball harder garnered more hits for Gordon.  His GB%, FB% and LD% remained relatively the same throughout his career.  This means his BABIP should remain essentially the same.  But with Dee Gordon his hard hit percentage was on the rise.  When his Hard Hit percentage rises it helps him to get more balls past defenders because the faster a ball is the harder it is for a defender to react (to some locations and at some angles).  Launch angles provided by StatCast are showing that there is an ideal Home Run angle.  If a player takes steroids they add more exit velocity or they add more power behind each hit, but they do not change the launch angle.  If Dee Gordon is hitting at a launch angle either on the ground or very high the additions in Hard Hit Percentage are leading to more singles and doubles.  This would increase his BABIP and garner more hits for him.  Thus the increase in his batting average from .234 in 2013 to .333 in 2015. 

 
Steroids and Launch Angle

 Statcast technology was not around for Barry Bonds, but I would bet that his hits mostly came off the bat at this ideal HR launch angle.  Steroids helped him convert fly ball outs into Home Runs, or more long doubles into Home Runs.  Steroids add more oomph into hits but only those at an ideal launch angle will become Home Runs.  Take Chris Colabello for example.  He's an okay hitter.  He took PEDs and had almost no impact (slightly better).  He did not get a huge amount of HRs or hits after.  This is because his launch angle is not ideal, and not consistent.  It also is because he was hitting short fly balls caught by defenders.  It turned his short fly outs into long fly outs.